Robert L. Winkler

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During the past ten years, many sets of subjective probability forecasts have been formulated on an operational or experimental basis by weather forecasters. In this paper we examine some forecasts prepared recently by National Weather Service forecasters. Samples of precipitation probability forecasts represent an operational program, while samples of(More)
An extensive body of literature has shown that combining forecasts can improve forecast accuracy, and that a simple average of the forecasts (the mean) often does better than more complex combining schemes. The fact that the mean is sensitive to extreme values suggests that deleting such values or reducing their extremity might be worthwhile. We study the(More)
D analysis produces measures of value such as expected net present values or expected utilities and ranks alternatives by these value estimates. Other optimization-based processes operate in a similar manner. With uncertainty and limited resources, an analysis is never perfect, so these value estimates are subject to error. We show that if we take these(More)
Your use of the JSTOR archive indicates your acceptance of JSTOR's Terms and Conditions of Use, available at http://www.jstor.org/page/info/about/policies/terms.jsp. JSTOR's Terms and Conditions of Use provides, in part, that unless you have obtained prior permission, you may not download an entire issue of a journal or multiple copies of articles, and you(More)
S rules can provide incentives for truthful reporting of probabilities and evaluation measures for the probabilities after the events of interest are observed. Often the space of events is ordered and an evaluation relative to some baseline distribution is desired. Scoring rules typically studied in the literature and used in practice do not take account of(More)
Computing the positive predictive value (PPV) of a wellknown test for a relatively common disease is a straight-forward exercise. However, in the case of a new test for a rare disorder; the extreme numbers involved-the very low prevalence of the disorder and the lack of previous false-positive results--make it difficult to compute the PPV. As new genetic(More)