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Terms and Conditions of Use provides, in part, that unless you have obtained prior permission, you may not download an entire issue of a journal or multiple copies of articles, and you may use content in the JSTOR archive only for your personal, non-commercial use. Each copy of any part of a JSTOR transmission must contain the same copyright notice that(More)
Terms and Conditions of Use provides, in part, that unless you have obtained prior permission, you may not download an entire issue of a journal or multiple copies of articles, and you may use content in the JSTOR archive only for your personal, non-commercial use. Each copy of any part of a JSTOR transmission must contain the same copyright notice that(More)
  • R L Winkler
  • 2001
The objective of this paper is to discuss why Bayesian statistics is not used more in healthcare decision making and what might be done to increase the use of Bayesian methods. First, a case is made for why Bayesian analysis should be used more widely. Serious weaknesses of commonly used frequentist methods are discussed and contrasted with advantages of(More)
During the past ten years, many sets of subjective probability forecasts have been formulated on an operational or experimental basis by weather forecasters. In this paper we examine some forecasts prepared recently by National Weather Service forecasters. Samples of precipitation probability forecasts represent an operational program, while samples of(More)
Computing the positive predictive value (PPV) of a wellknown test for a relatively common disease is a straight-forward exercise. However, in the case of a new test for a rare disorder; the extreme numbers involved-the very low prevalence of the disorder and the lack of previous false-positive results--make it difficult to compute the PPV. As new genetic(More)
Quantile assessments are commonly encountered in the elicitation of probability distributions in decision analysis, forecasting , and risk analysis. Scoring rules have been developed to provide ex ante incentives for careful and truthful assessments and ex post evaluation measures in the context of probability assessment. We show that these scoring rules(More)