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S coring rules can provide incentives for truthful reporting of probabilities and evaluation measures for the probabilities after the events of interest are observed. Often the space of events is ordered and an evaluation relative to some baseline distribution is desired. Scoring rules typically studied in the literature and used in practice do not take… (More)

Information measures arise in many disciplines, including forecasting (where scoring rules are used to provide incentives for probability estimation), signal processing (where information gain is measured in physical units of relative entropy), decision analysis (where new information can lead to improved decisions), and finance (where investors optimize… (More)

- Richmond R Jose, Robert L Winkler
- 2008

An extensive body of literature has shown that combining forecasts can improve forecast accuracy, and that a simple average of the forecasts (the mean) often does better than more complex combining schemes. The fact that the mean is sensitive to extreme values suggests that deleting such values or reducing their extremity might be worthwhile. We study the… (More)