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During the past ten years, many sets of subjective probability forecasts have been formulated on an operational or experimental basis by weather forecasters. In this paper we examine some forecasts prepared recently by National Weather Service forecasters. Samples of precipitation probability forecasts represent an operational program, while samples of(More)
Information measures arise in many disciplines, including forecasting (where scoring rules are used to provide incentives for probability estimation), signal processing (where information gain is measured in physical units of relative entropy), decision analysis (where new information can lead to improved decisions), and finance (where investors optimize(More)
S coring rules can provide incentives for truthful reporting of probabilities and evaluation measures for the probabilities after the events of interest are observed. Often the space of events is ordered and an evaluation relative to some baseline distribution is desired. Scoring rules typically studied in the literature and used in practice do not take(More)