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How anthropogenic climate change will affect hydroclimate in the arid regions of southwestern North America has implications for the allocation of water resources and the course of regional development. Here we show that there is a broad consensus among climate models that this region will dry in the 21st century and that the transition to a more arid(More)
The causes of persistent droughts and wet periods, or pluvials, over western North America are examined in model simulations of the period from 1856 to 2000. The simulations used either (i) global sea surface temperature data as a lower boundary condition or (ii) observed data in just the tropical Pacific and computed the surface ocean temperature elsewhere(More)
Severe drought is the greatest recurring natural disaster to strike North America. A remarkable network of centuries-long annual tree-ring chronologies has now allowed for the reconstruction of past drought over North America covering the past 1000 or more years in most regions. These reconstructions reveal the occurrence of past " megadroughts " of(More)
Inspired by paleoclimate evidence that much past climate change has been symmetric about the equator, the causes of hemispherically symmetric variability in the recent observational record are examined using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction–National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis dataset and numerical models. It was found that(More)
As the climate changes, drought may reduce tree productivity and survival across many forest ecosystems; however, the relative influence of specific climate parameters on forest decline is poorly understood. We derive a forest drought-stress index (FDSI) for the southwestern United States using a comprehensive tree-ring data set representing AD 1000–2007.(More)
determined as precisely as needed by choosing a sufficiently large time interval (t 2 Ϫ t 1) between the corresponding measurements of z. 9. Analysis of structures means that the structures were animated by the use of the Xmol program. Visual inspection of snapshots (similar to those available to online subscribers at http://www.sciencemag.org) allowed me(More)
1 Contribution number XXXX of Lamont D o h erty E a r t h Observatory. Abstract The c a uses of decadal variations of North P aciic sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are examined using a hindcast performed with an ocean general circulation model thermodynamically coupled to a n a tmospheric mixed layer model (OGCM-AML model) and forced by t he t ime history(More)
In recent years, two alarming trends in North Atlantic climate have been noted: an increase in the intensity and frequency of Atlantic hurricanes and a rapid decrease in Greenland ice sheet volume. Both of these phenomena occurred while a significant warming took place in North Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs), thus sparking a debate on whether the(More)
Drought is the most economically expensive recurring natural disaster to strike North America in modern times. Recently available gridded drought reconstructions have been developed for most of North America from a network of drought-sensitive tree-ring chronologies, many of which span the last 1000 yr. These reconstructions enable the authors to put the(More)
Could the Dust Bowl drought of the 1930s have been predicted in advance if the SST anomalies of the 1930s had been foreknown? Ensembles of model simulations forced with historical observed SSTs in the global ocean, and also separately in the tropical Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, are compared with an ensemble begun in January 1929 with modeled atmosphere and(More)