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We describe "first principles" based methods for developing synthetic urban and national scale social contact networks. Unlike simple random graph techniques, these methods use real world data sources and combine them with behavioral and social theories to synthesize networks. We develop a synthetic population for the United States modeling every individual(More)
Reliable forecasts of influenza can aid in the control of both seasonal and pandemic outbreaks. We introduce a simulation optimization (SIMOP) approach for forecasting the influenza epidemic curve. This study represents the final step of a project aimed at using a combination of simulation, classification, statistical and optimization techniques to forecast(More)
We describe ISIS, a high-performance-computing-based application to support computational epidemiology of infectious diseases. ISIS has been developed over the last seven years in close coordination with public health and policy experts. It has been used in a number of important federal planning and response exercises. ISIS grew out of years of experience(More)
Individual-based epidemiology models are increasingly used in the study of influenza epidemics. Several studies on influenza dynamics and evaluation of intervention measures have used the same incubation and infectious period distribution parameters based on the natural history of influenza. A sensitivity analysis evaluating the influence of slight changes(More)
We describe a large-scale simulation of the aftermath of a hypothetical 10kT improvised nuclear detonation at ground level, near the White House in Washington DC. We take a synthetic information approach, where multiple data sets are combined to construct a synthesized representation of the population of the region with accurate demographics, as well as(More)
Clustering is useful in elucidating associations among agents of networks and has been advantageously applied in numerous fields including biology, chemistry, sociology, and economics. Most clustering algorithms have been applied to (weighted) networks with a fixed topology. However, many networks are constructed to simulate particular dynamics on them;(More)
Public-health policy makers have many tools to mitigate an epidemic's effects. Most related research focuses on the direct effects on those infected (in terms of health, life, or productivity). Interventions including treatment, prophylaxis, quarantine, and social distancing are well studied in this context. These interventions do not address indirect(More)
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