Richard Harrison

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We develop a behavioral macroeconomic model in which agents use simple but biased rules to forecast future output and inflation. This model generates endogenous waves of optimism and pessimism (“Animal Spirits”) that are generated by the correlation of biased beliefs. We contrast the dynamics of this model with a stylized DSGE-version of the model and we(More)
This article examines the effects of crowding in a market center on rates of change in organizational niche width and on organizational mortality. It proposes that, although firms with wide niches benefit from risk spreading and economies of scale, they are simultaneously exposed to intense competition. An analysis of organizational dynamics in automobile(More)
We use a monetary overlapping-generations model to discuss the cause and durability of the marked fall in the volatility of inflation in recent decades. In our model, agents have to forecast inflation, and they do so using two “heuristics.” One is based on lagged inflation, the other on an inflation target announced by the central bank. Agents switch(More)
We introduce a spatially explicit model of natural hybrid zones that allows us to consider how patterns of allele frequencies and linkage disequilibria change over time. We examine the influence of hybrid zone origins on patterns of variation at two loci, a locus under selection in a two-patch environment, and a linked neutral locus. We consider several(More)
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In 2008 all ECB publications feature a motif taken from the 10 banknote. for their comments and suggestions. This hospitality and the financial support of the ECB are gratefully acknowledged. The views expressed in this paper are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the European Central Bank. Fax +49 69 1344 6000 All rights(More)
In this paper we explore the consequences for forecasting of the following two facts: first, that over time statistical agencies revise and improve published data, so that observations on more recent events are those that are least well measured. Second, that economies are such that observations on the most recent events contain the the largest signal about(More)
We develop the theme of an earlier paper [3], namely that security protocols for pervasive computing frequently need to exploit empirical channels and that the latter can be classified by variants of the Dolev-Yao attacker model. We refine this classification of channels and study three protocols in depth: two from our earlier paper and one new one.