Richard D. McKelvey

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We acknowledge support of National Science Foundation Grant No. SBR-9223701 to the California Institute of Technology and the support of the JPL-Caltech supercomputer project. We thank Barry O'Neill, Richard Boebel, Jack Ochs and Amnon Rapoport for sharing their data. We acknowledge valuable discussions with Mahmoud El-Gamal and Mark Fey, helpful comments(More)
We report experimental results from long sequences of decisions in environments that are theoretically prone to severe information cascades. Observed behavior is much different—information cascades are ephemeral. We study the implications of a model based on quantal response equilibrium, in which the observed cascade formation/collapse/formation cycles(More)
We examine legislative policy making in institutions with two empirically relevant features: agenda setting occurs in real time and the default policy evolves. We demonstrate that these institutions select Condorcet winners when they exist, provided a sufficient number of individuals have opportunities to make proposals. In policy spaces with either pork(More)
The quantal response equilibrium (QRE) notion of Richard D. McKelvey and Thomas R. Palfrey (1995) has recently attracted considerable attention, due in part to its widely documented ability to rationalize observed behavior in games played by experimental subjects. However, even with strong a priori restrictions on unobservables, QRE imposes no falsifiable(More)
We present experimental results on individual decisions in juries. We consider the effect of three treatment variables: the size of the jury (three or six), the number of votes needed for conviction (majority or unanimity), and jury deliberation. We nd evidence of strategic voting under the unanimity rule, where the form of strategic behavior involves a(More)
This paper studies the ability of nonmarket institutions to invest optimally in forward intergenerational goods (FIGs), such as education and the environment, when agents are selŽ sh or exhibit paternalistic altruism. We show that backward intergenerational goods (BIGs), such as social security, play a crucial role in sustaining investment in FIGs: without(More)
It is difficult to overstate the profound impact that game theory has had on the economic approach and on the sciences more generally. For that reason, understanding how closely the assumptions that underpin game theoretic analysis conform to actual human decision-making is a question of first-order importance to economists. In this spirit, backward(More)
We report on a design of a Turing tournament and its initial implementation to learning in repeated 2 person games. The principal objectives of the tournament, named after the original Turing Test, are (1) to find learning algorithms (emulators) that most closely simulate human behavior, (2) to find algorithms (detectors) that most accurately distinguish(More)