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Hempel's paradox of the ravens has to do with the question of what constitutes confirmation from a logical point of view; Wason's selection task has been used extensively to investigate how people go about attempting to confirm or disconfirm conditional claims. This paper presents an argument that the paradox is resolved, and that people's typical(More)
What does it mean to be rational – to reason well and effectively? How does rationality, broadly conceived, relate to the knowledge one acquires, the beliefs one forms, the explanations one constructs or appropriates, the judgments and decisions one makes, the values one adopts? What is the character of human reasoning and, in particular, does it tend to be(More)
Human factors and ergonomics research focuses on questions pertaining to the design of devices, systems, and procedures with the goal of making sure that they are well suited to human use and focuses on studies of the interaction of people with simple and complex systems and machines. Problem areas studied include the allocation of function to people and(More)
errors tend to cancel across large samples. As we also argued, an advantage of clinician reports is that researchers can measure and control effects associated with training or theoretical orientation if these occur. Finally, we cannot help but note that this series of comments and our reply to them provide a prototypical example of " clinical " judgment in(More)
This experiment addressed the opinion prevailing among researchers that people are poor at producing random binary sequences. Participants tried to produce sets of sequences of outcomes of imaginary coin tosses that could not be distinguished statistically from sets expected from actual coin tossing. The results generally support the conclusion that people(More)
Doing crossword puzzles is a popular pastime; no one knows how many people do them, but estimates go as high as 50 million or more in the United States alone. Success at crossword puzzles taxes several aspects of memory and cognition. The purpose of this article is to consider hints that crosswords provide and questions that they prompt regarding how the(More)