Rafał Weron

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A simple Ising spin model which can describe the mechanism of advertising in a duopoly market is proposed. In contrast to other agent-based models, the influence does not flow inward from the surrounding neighbors to the center site, but spreads outward from the center to the neighbors. The model thus describes the spread of opinions among customers. It is(More)
BACKGROUND Agent-based models (ABM) are believed to be a very powerful tool in the social sciences, sometimes even treated as a substitute for social experiments. When building an ABM we have to define the agents and the rules governing the artificial society. Given the complexity and our limited understanding of the human nature, we face the problem of(More)
A simple Ising spin model, which can describe the mechanism of price formation in financial markets is proposed. In contrast to other agent-based models, the influence does not flow inward from the surrounding neighbors to the center site, but spreads outward from the center to the neighbors. The model thus describes the spread of opinions among traders. It(More)
In this paper, we present a procedure for consistent estimation of the severity and frequency distributions based on incomplete insurance data and demonstrate that ignoring the thresholds leads to a serious underestimation of the ruin probabilities. The event frequency is modelled with a nonhomogeneous Poisson process with a sinusoidal intensity rate(More)
Using an agent-based modeling approach we show how personal attributes, like conformity or indifference, impact the opinions of individual electricity consumers regarding switching to innovative dynamic tariff programs. We also examine the influence of advertising, discomfort of usage and the expectations of financial savings on opinion dynamics. Our main(More)
In the last decades, with deregulation of power markets and introduction of competition, electricity price forecasts have become a fundamental input to an energy company's decision-making mechanism [3][14]. Short-term price forecasts (STPF) are of particular interest for participants of auction-type spot electricity markets who are requested to express(More)