Scoring Rules for Continuous Probability Distributions
- J. Matheson, R. L. Winkler
- Mathematics
- 1 June 1976
Personal, or subjective, probabilities are used as inputs to many inferential and decision-making models, and various procedures have been developed for the elicitation of such probabilities.…
The accuracy of extrapolation (time series) methods: Results of a forecasting competition
- Spyros Makridakis, A. Andersen, R. L. Winkler
- Economics
- 1 April 1982
The results of a forecasting competition are presented to provide empirical evidence about differences found to exist among the various extrapolative (time series) methods used in the competition.
A General Framework for Forecast Verification
- A. H. Murphy, R. L. Winkler
- Environmental Science
- 1 July 1987
Abstract A general framework for forecast verification based on the joint distribution of forecasts and observations is described. For further elaboration of the framework, two factorizations of the…
Combining Probability Distributions From Experts in Risk Analysis
- R. Clemen, R. L. Winkler
- Business
- 1 April 1999
This paper concerns the combination of experts' probability distributions in risk analysis, discussing a variety of combination methods and attempting to highlight the important conceptual and…
Combining Probability Distributions from Dependent Information Sources
- R. L. Winkler
- Economics
- 1 April 1981
Inferences or decisions in the face of uncertainty should be based on all available information. Thus, when probability distributions for an uncertain quantity are obtained from experts, models, or…
Hailfinder: A Bayesian system for forecasting severe weather
- B. Abramson, John M. Brown, W. Edwards, A. H. Murphy, R. L. Winkler
- Computer Science
- 1 March 1996
Combining Economic Forecasts
- R. Clemen, R. L. Winkler
- Economics
- 1986
A method for combining forecasts may or may not account for dependence and differing precision among forecasts. In this article we test a variety of such methods in the context of combining forecasts…
Averages of Forecasts: Some Empirical Results
- Spyros Makridakis, R. L. Winkler
- Economics
- 1 September 1983
An alternative to using a single forecasting method is to average the forecasts obtained from several methods. In this paper we investigate empirically the impact of the number and choice of…
Interactive Elicitation of Opinion for a Normal Linear Model
- J. Kadane, J. Dickey, R. L. Winkler, Wayne S. Smith, S. Peters
- Mathematics
- 1 December 1980
Abstract This article describes the mathematical theory underlying an interactive computer program for eliciting the hyperparameters of a subjective conjugate distribution for the multiple linear…
Separating probability elicitation from utilities
- J. Kadane, R. L. Winkler
- Economics
- 1 June 1988
Abstract This article deals with the separation of probability elicitation from utilities. We show that elicited probabilities can be related to utilities not just through the explicit or implicit…
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