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Climate Change 2021—The Physical Science Basis
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the United Nations body responsible for assessing the science related to climate change. The Sixth Report from IPCC Working Group 1 published…
Long-term Climate Change: Projections, Commitments and Irreversibility
This chapter assesses long-term projections of climate change for the end of the 21st century and beyond, where the forced signal depends on the scenario and is typically larger than the internal…
Global warming under old and new scenarios using IPCC climate sensitivity range estimates
Models and scenarios on which climate projection are based vary between IPCC reports. To facilitate meaningful comparison, this study provides probabilistic climate projections for different…
Greenhouse-gas emission targets for limiting global warming to 2 °C
A comprehensive probabilistic analysis aimed at quantifying GHG emission budgets for the 2000–50 period that would limit warming throughout the twenty-first century to below 2 °C, based on a combination of published distributions of climate system properties and observational constraints is provided.
The use of the multi-model ensemble in probabilistic climate projections
- C. Tebaldi, R. Knutti
- Environmental SciencePhilosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A…
- 15 August 2007
The motivation for using multi-model ensembles, the methodologies published so far and their results for regional temperature projections are outlined, and the challenges in interpreting multi- model results are discussed.
Irreversible climate change due to carbon dioxide emissions
- S. Solomon, G. Plattner, R. Knutti, P. Friedlingstein
- Environmental ScienceProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
- 10 February 2009
The climate change that takes place due to increases in carbon dioxide concentration is largely irreversible for 1,000 years after emissions stop, showing that thermal expansion of the warming ocean provides a conservative lower limit to irreversible global average sea level rise.
The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6
Abstract. Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario…
Challenges in Combining Projections from Multiple Climate Models
While the multimodel average appears to still be useful in some situations, the results show that more quantitative methods to evaluate model performance are critical to maximize the value of climate change projections from global models.
Robustness and uncertainties in the new CMIP5 climate model projections
Updated models are being used for the new assessment report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. This study compares projections from the latest models with those from earlier…