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- Publications
- Influence
Bridge models to forecast the euro area GDP
- A. Baffigi, R. Golinelli, G. Parigi
- Economics
- 1 July 2004
Abstract Quantitative information on the current state of the economy is crucial to economic policy-making and to early understanding of the economic situation, but the quarterly national account… Expand
Modelling the demand for M3 in the Euro area
- R. Golinelli, S. Pastorello
- Economics
- 1 December 2002
Modelling monetary transmission is central to understanding the role of monetary policy in the Euro area, and money demand is commonly seen as a link in that transmission mechanism. Since the… Expand
The cyclical reaction of fiscal policies in the euro area: the role of modelling choices and data vintages
- R. Golinelli, Sandro Momigliano
- Economics
- 1 March 2009
We survey the recent empirical literature concerning the cyclical response of fiscal policies in the euro area, finding large differences in results. We show that these differences are heavily… Expand
The Cyclical Response of Fiscal Policies in the Euro Area: Why Do Results of Empirical Research Differ So Strongly?
- Sandro Momigliano, R. Golinelli
- 1 January 2008
Whether discretionary fiscal policies in industrialized countries act counter- or pro-cyclically and whether their reaction is symmetric or asymmetric over the cycle are still largely unsettled… Expand
Consumer Sentiment and Economic Activity: A Cross Country Comparison
- R. Golinelli, G. Parigi
- Economics
- 30 June 2004
The objective of this article is to reassess the validity of the consumer confidence (or sentiment) indices in anticipating the evolution of economic activity by considering a fairly high number of… Expand
Real-time determinants of fiscal policies in the Euro Area
- R. Golinelli, Sandro Momigliano
- Economics
- 1 December 2006
Abstract We examine the impact of four factors on the fiscal policies of the euro-area countries over the last two decades: the state of public finances, the European fiscal rules, cyclical… Expand
Why Demand Uncertainty Curbs Investment: Evidence from a Panel of Italian Manufacturing Firms
- G. Parigi, Maria Elena Bontempi, R. Golinelli
- 1 April 2007
From a theoretical point of view, uncertainty over the demand for a firm's product may not have clear effects on investments, because of the influence of a number of factors, such as the production… Expand
Forecasting industrial production in the Euro area
- G. Bodo, R. Golinelli, G. Parigi
- Economics
- 1 December 2000
Abstract. The creation of the Euro area has increased the importance of obtaining timely information about short-term changes in the area's real activity. In this paper we propose a number of… Expand
Monetary Policy Transmission, Interest Rate Rules and Inflation Targeting in Three Transition Countries
- R. Golinelli, R. Rovelli
- Economics
- 1 December 2001
In 1991, the rate of inflation in the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland was between 35% and 70%. At the end of 2001, it is below 8%. We setup a small structural macro model of these economies to… Expand
Modelling Inflation in EU Accession Countries: The Case of the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland
- R. Golinelli, R. Orsi
- Economics
- 1 August 2002
Inflation in Central and East European countries varied considerably over the transition phase, and econometric relationships between prices, money, wages and exchange rates are said to have been… Expand