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Bridge models to forecast the euro area GDP
Abstract Quantitative information on the current state of the economy is crucial to economic policy-making and to early understanding of the economic situation, but the quarterly national accountExpand
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Modelling the demand for M3 in the Euro area
Modelling monetary transmission is central to understanding the role of monetary policy in the Euro area, and money demand is commonly seen as a link in that transmission mechanism. Since theExpand
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The cyclical reaction of fiscal policies in the euro area: the role of modelling choices and data vintages
We survey the recent empirical literature concerning the cyclical response of fiscal policies in the euro area, finding large differences in results. We show that these differences are heavilyExpand
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The Cyclical Response of Fiscal Policies in the Euro Area: Why Do Results of Empirical Research Differ So Strongly?
Whether discretionary fiscal policies in industrialized countries act counter- or pro-cyclically and whether their reaction is symmetric or asymmetric over the cycle are still largely unsettledExpand
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Consumer Sentiment and Economic Activity: A Cross Country Comparison
The objective of this article is to reassess the validity of the consumer confidence (or sentiment) indices in anticipating the evolution of economic activity by considering a fairly high number ofExpand
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Real-time determinants of fiscal policies in the Euro Area
Abstract We examine the impact of four factors on the fiscal policies of the euro-area countries over the last two decades: the state of public finances, the European fiscal rules, cyclicalExpand
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Why Demand Uncertainty Curbs Investment: Evidence from a Panel of Italian Manufacturing Firms
From a theoretical point of view, uncertainty over the demand for a firm's product may not have clear effects on investments, because of the influence of a number of factors, such as the productionExpand
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Forecasting industrial production in the Euro area
Abstract. The creation of the Euro area has increased the importance of obtaining timely information about short-term changes in the area's real activity. In this paper we propose a number ofExpand
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Monetary Policy Transmission, Interest Rate Rules and Inflation Targeting in Three Transition Countries
In 1991, the rate of inflation in the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland was between 35% and 70%. At the end of 2001, it is below 8%. We setup a small structural macro model of these economies toExpand
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Modelling Inflation in EU Accession Countries: The Case of the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland
Inflation in Central and East European countries varied considerably over the transition phase, and econometric relationships between prices, money, wages and exchange rates are said to have beenExpand
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