• Publications
  • Influence
The accuracy of extrapolation (time series) methods: Results of a forecasting competition
TLDR
The results of a forecasting competition that provides empirical evidence about differences found to exist among the various extrapolative (time series) methods used in the competition. Expand
  • 1,258
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Scenarios: The Art of Strategic Conversation
  • R. Fildes
  • Computer Science
  • J. Oper. Res. Soc.
  • 24 October 1996
THE CONTEXT. 1965 to 1990: Five Discoveries in Shell. Three Competing Paradigms in Strategic Management. THE PRINCIPLES OF SCENARIO PLANNING. The Business Idea of An Organisation. Dealing withExpand
  • 553
  • 43
Effective forecasting and judgmental adjustments: an empirical evaluation and strategies for improvement in supply-chain planning
Demand forecasting is a crucial aspect of the planning process in supply-chain companies. The most common approach to forecasting demand in these companies involves the use of a computerizedExpand
  • 298
  • 36
Forecasting and operational research: a review
TLDR
From its foundation, operational research (OR) has made many substantial contributions to practical forecasting in organizations. Expand
  • 225
  • 13
  • PDF
The Organization and Improvement of Market Forecasting
TLDR
This paper first considers those factors that should be included in any complete evaluation of market forecasting. Expand
  • 150
  • 13
The State of Macroeconomic Forecasting
Macroeconomic forecasts are used extensively in industry and government. The historical accuracy of US and UK forecasts are examined in the light of different approaches to evaluating macroforecasts.Expand
  • 226
  • 13
The evaluation of extrapolative forecasting methods
TLDR
This paper examines how a forecasting method should be chosen based on analyzing alternative loss functions. Expand
  • 237
  • 12