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Making Sense of Randomness" Implicit Encoding as a Basis for Judgment
Three experiments indicate that the perceived randomness of a sequence is better predicted by various measures of its encoding difficulty than by its objective randomness, which seems to imply that in accordance with the complexity view, judging the extent of asequence's randomness is based on an attempt to mentally encode it.
Significance Tests Die Hard
We present a critique showing the flawed logical structure of statistical significance tests. We then attempt to analyze why, in spite of this faulty reasoning, the use of significance tests…
A closer look at the probabilities of the notorious three prisoners
- R. Falk
- 31 December 1992
Some teasers concerning conditional probabilities
Children’s concept of probability as inferred from their binary choices—revisited
Children had to choose one of two urns—each comprising beads of winning and losing colours—from which to draw a winning bead. Three experiments, aimed at diagnosing rules of choice and designed…
Children's construction of fair chances: adjusting probabilities.
A probability-adjustment task was presented to 6-14-year-old children, and the results indicate that only at around the age of 13 did most children proportionally integrate the 2 dimensions (i.e., the numbers of winning and losing beads).
Infinity: A Cognitive Challenge
- R. Falk
- 1 February 1994
Dealing with infinity, an inherently abstract concept which defies concrete representation, involves distinct cognitive difficulties. I first review the research on the development of children's…
The allure of equality: Uniformity in probabilistic and statistical judgment