A new graphical model, called a vine, for dependent random variables is introduced. Vines generalize the Markov trees often used in modelling high-dimensional distributions. They differ from Markov… Expand

A general formula for the density of a vine dependent distribution is derived, which generalizes the well-known density formula for belief nets based on the decomposition of belief nets into cliques and allows a simple proof of the Information Decomposition Theorem for a regular vine.Expand

Probabilistic risk analysis aims to quantify the risk caused by high technology installations. Increasingly, such analyses are being applied to a wider class of systems in which problems such as lack… Expand

This book presents a meta-modelling framework for estimating uncertainty in the context of probabilistic inversion, and some examples show how this model can be modified to address the challenges faced by the rapidly changing environment.Expand

The classical model for structured expert judgment and the performance measures is reviewed, applications are reviewed, comparing performance-based decision makers with “equal weight” decision makers are compared, and some lessons learned are collected.Expand

This paper aims at presenting the different aspects of information fusion in different domains, such as databases, regulations, preferences, sensor fusion, etc., at a quite general level.Expand

The findings of a structured expert judgement study, using unique techniques for modeling correlations between inter- and intra-ice sheet processes and their tail dependences, find that a global total SLR exceeding 2 m by 2100 lies within the 90% uncertainty bounds for a high emission scenario.Expand