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Exploring the "planning fallacy": Why people underestimate their task completion times.
This study tested 3 main hypotheses concerning people's predictions of task completion times: (a) People underestimate their own but not others' completion times, (b) people focus on plan-based
Intensity Bias in Affective Forecasting: The Role of Temporal Focus
In five studies, university students predicted their affective reactions to a wide variety of positive and negative future events. In Studies 1 to 3, participants also reported the affective
People focus on optimistic scenarios and disregard pessimistic scenarios while predicting task completion times.
It is concluded that pessimistic-scenario generation may not be an effective debiasing technique for personal predictions, and people took pessimistic scenarios into account when predicting someone else's completion times.
Inside the planning fallacy: The causes and consequences of optimistic time predictions.
Individuals, organizations, and governments all commonly plan projects and estimate when they will be completed. Kahneman and Tversky (1979) suggested that such estimates tend to be optimistic
Planning, personality, and prediction: The role of future focus in optimistic time predictions☆
Abstract The present studies examined cognitive processes underlying the tendency to underestimate project completion times. Two experiments tested the hypothesis that people generate overly
The Role of Motivated Reasoning in Optimistic Time Predictions
The authors explore the well-documented tendency for people to predict that they will finish tasks earlier than they actually do. Whereas previous research has tied this optimistic bias to the
Seeing Future Success: Does Imagery Perspective Influence Achievement Motivation?
A phenomenological aspect of positive mental imagery— the visual perspective adopted—that may moderate its motivational impact is examined, hypothesizing that people feel more motivated to succeed on a future task when they visualize its successful completion from a third-person rather than a first-person perspective.
Affective Responses To Social Comparisons With Extremely Close Others
Abstract Three experiments examined the hypothesis that the assimilation effect in people's responses to social comparisons (i.e., more pleasant responses to comparisons with successful others than
Frequency, Probability, and Prediction: Easy Solutions to Cognitive Illusions?
It is found that frequency-based predictions are different from-but no better than-case-specific judgments of probability, while results from studies of overconfidence in general knowledge and base rate neglect in categorical prediction underline a general conclusion.
Fermi Large Area Telescope Fourth Source Catalog
We present an incremental version (4FGL-DR2, for Data Release 2) of the fourth Fermi-LAT catalog of gamma-ray sources. Based on the first ten years of science data in the energy range from 50 MeV to