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Exploring the "planning fallacy": Why people underestimate their task completion times.
This study tested 3 main hypotheses concerning people's predictions of task completion times: (a) People underestimate their own but not others' completion times, (b) people focus on plan-based… Expand
Intensity Bias in Affective Forecasting: The Role of Temporal Focus
In five studies, university students predicted their affective reactions to a wide variety of positive and negative future events. In Studies 1 to 3, participants also reported the affective… Expand
Inside the planning fallacy: The causes and consequences of optimistic time predictions.
Individuals, organizations, and governments all commonly plan projects and estimate when they will be completed. Kahneman and Tversky (1979) suggested that such estimates tend to be optimistic… Expand
Planning, personality, and prediction: The role of future focus in optimistic time predictions☆
Abstract The present studies examined cognitive processes underlying the tendency to underestimate project completion times. Two experiments tested the hypothesis that people generate overly… Expand
The Role of Motivated Reasoning in Optimistic Time Predictions
The authors explore the well-documented tendency for people to predict that they will finish tasks earlier than they actually do. Whereas previous research has tied this optimistic bias to the… Expand
Seeing Future Success: Does Imagery Perspective Influence Achievement Motivation?
- Noelia A. Vasquez, R. Buehler
- Psychology, Medicine
- Personality & social psychology bulletin
- 1 October 2007
Imagining future success can sometimes enhance people's motivation to achieve it. This article examines a phenomenological aspect of positive mental imagery— the visual perspective adopted—that may… Expand
Frequency, Probability, and Prediction: Easy Solutions to Cognitive Illusions?
Many errors in probabilistic judgment have been attributed to people's inability to think in statistical terms when faced with information about a single case. Prior theoretical analyses and… Expand
Affective Responses To Social Comparisons With Extremely Close Others
Abstract Three experiments examined the hypothesis that the assimilation effect in people's responses to social comparisons (i.e., more pleasant responses to comparisons with successful others than… Expand
Collaborative planning and prediction: Does group discussion affect optimistic biases in time estimation?
Abstract Intuition and previous research indicate that individuals commonly display an optimistic bias in time prediction. The present studies extend research on task completion forecasts to examine… Expand
Finishing on time: When do predictions influence completion times?
People typically predict they will finish projects earlier than they do. Whereas previous research has examined the determinants of this prediction bias, the present research explored potential… Expand