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"This paper examines differentials in observed and forecasted sex-specific life expectancies and longevity in the United States from 1900 to 2065. Mortality models are developed and used to generate long-run forecasts, with confidence intervals that extend recent work by Lee and Carter (1992). These results are compared for forecast accuracy with(More)
Lee and Carter (LC) published a new statistical method for forecasting mortality in 1992. This paper examines its actual and hypothetical forecast errors, and compares them with Social Security forecast errors. Hypothetical historical projections suggest that LC tended to underproject gains, but by less than did Social Security. True e0 was within the ex(More)
Mortality patterns and trajectories in closely related populations are likely to be similar in some respects, and differences are unlikely to increase in the long run. It should therefore be possible to improve the mortality forecasts for individual countries by taking into account the patterns in a larger group. Using the Human Mortality Database, we apply(More)
  • Ronald D Lee
  • Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences…
  • 2003
The classic evolutionary theory of aging explains why mortality rises with age: as individuals grow older, less lifetime fertility remains, so continued survival contributes less to reproductive fitness. However, successful reproduction often involves intergenerational transfers as well as fertility. In the formal theory offered here, age-specific selective(More)
<lb>The \bidirectional edges problem" is to nd an edge-labelling of an undirected network,<lb>G = (V;E), with a source and a sink, such that an edge [u; v] 2 E is labelled hu; vi or hv; ui<lb>(or both) depending on the existence of a (simple) path from the source to sink that visits<lb>the vertices u and v, in the order u,v or v,u, respectively. We provide(More)
Projections of population size, growth rates, and age distribution, although extending to distant horizons, shape policies today for the economy, environment, and government programs such as public pensions and health care. The projections can lead to costly policy adjustments, which in turn can cause political and economic turmoil. The United Nations(More)
"This article presents and implements a new method for making stochastic population forecasts that provide consistent probability intervals. We blend mathematical demography and statistical time series methods to estimate stochastic models of fertility and mortality based on U.S. data back to 1900 and then use the theory of random-matrix products to(More)
  • R D Lee
  • International journal of forecasting
  • 1993
This discussion of modeling focuses on the difficulties in longterm, time-series forecasting of US fertility. Four possibilities are suggested. One difficulty with the traditional approach of using high or low bounds on fertility and mortality is that forecast errors are perfectly correlated over time, which means there are no cancellation of errors over(More)
across the developed world, generous welfare state programs for the elderly, together with projected doublings or more in the proportion old, have led to political struggles that sometimes pit younger generations against the elderly. the goal of this chapter is to put the current situation in historical and institutional context. we begin with a brief(More)
  • R D Lee
  • Journal of the American Statistical Association
  • 1974
Time series analysis of fertility can improve demographic forecasts. The optimal forecast and its variance for births to an age-structured population subject to serially correlated random fertility are developed. The general case in which the fertility process had arbitrary autoregressive structure is dealt with and then the 4 special cases of white(More)