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From Natural Resource Boom to Sustainable Economic Growth: Lessons for Mongolia
Many resource-rich developing countries are in the process of harnessing immense mining resources towards inclusive growth and prosperity. The often-large infrastructure gap in developing countries…
Debt is Not Free
- Marialuz Moreno Badia, Paulo A. Medas, Pranav Gupta, Yuan Xiang
- EconomicsIMF Working Papers
- 1 January 2020
With public debt soaring across the world, a growing concern is whether current debt levels are a harbinger of fiscal crises, thereby restricting the policy space in a downturn. The empirical…
Quarterly Projection Model for India: Key Elements and Properties
This paper outlines the key features of the production version of the quarterly projection model (QPM), which is a forward-looking open-economy gap model, calibrated to represent the Indian case, for…
Changing Patterns of Women’s Turnout in Indian Elections
This article traces the changing patterns of women’s turnout in state assembly and Lok Sabha elections in India. The primary objective of the article is to understand why more women are turning out…
Quantifying collective intelligence in human groups
- Christoph Riedl, Young Ji Kim, Pranav Gupta, T. Malone, A. Woolley
- PsychologyProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
- 17 May 2021
It is shown that CI is predicted by the proportion of women in the group, mediated by average social perceptiveness of group members, and that it predicts performance on various out-of-sample criterion tasks, and it is found that, overall, group collaboration process is more important in predicting CI than the skill of individual members.
Introducing a Semi-Structural Macroeconomic Model for Rwanda
We develop a simple semistructural model for the Rwandan economy to better understand the monetary policy transmission mechanism. A key feature of the model is the introduction of a modified…
How do Structural Features Affect Corporate Exposures to Macro-financial Shocks in Open Economies?
The global financial crisis highlighted the importance of understanding how both national and global macro-financial shocks affect the performance and financial health of economies. We use a…
Harnessing Natural Resources Wealth for Inclusive Growth in Fragile States
Like other fragile sub-Saharan African countries, Cote d’Ivoire, Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone are seeking to harness their natural resource potential in the context of ambitious development…
Productivity in an Era of Multi-Teaming
Results show multi-teaming hurt team performance by reducing TMS; use of an information dashboard benefited high-varieties teams and, surprisingly, hurt the performance of low-variety teams.
An Active Inference Model of Collective Intelligence
This paper uses the Active Inference Formulation (AIF), a framework for explaining the behavior of any non-equilibrium steady state system at any scale, to posit a minimal agent-based model that simulates the relationship between local individual-level interaction and collective intelligence.