Phillip E. Pfeifer

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Introduction Background In 1906, Francis Galton observed that the average of 787 entries was remarkably close to the actual weight of an ox. Surowiecki (2005) in The Wisdom of Crowds, popularized the idea that the crowd's forecast, the average of the individual forecasts, often outperforms any individual forecast. Introduction Motivation Sometimes(More)
This paper examines the prediction contests as a vehicle for aggregating the opinions of a crowd of experts. After proposing a general definition distinguishing prediction contests from other mechanisms for harnessing the wisdom of crowds, we examine two common types of prediction contests. For both point forecasting contests and pick-the-winners contests,(More)
The concept of customer lifetime value (CLV) is widely used by marketing practitioners and academics in making decisions about customer acquisition and retention spending. The traditional view of CLV, however, assumes that the firm has the unlimited capacity to serve all its acquired and retained customers. In this paper we consider a firm with limited(More)