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In clinical trials comparing different treatments and in health economics and outcomes research, medical costs are frequently analysed to evaluate the economical impacts of new treatment options and economic values of health-care utilization. Since Lin et al.'s first finding in the problem of applying the survival analysis techniques to the cost data, many(More)
Introduction Background In 1906, Francis Galton observed that the average of 787 entries was remarkably close to the actual weight of an ox. Surowiecki (2005) in The Wisdom of Crowds, popularized the idea that the crowd's forecast, the average of the individual forecasts, often outperforms any individual forecast. Introduction Motivation Sometimes(More)
This paper examines the prediction contests as a vehicle for aggregating the opinions of a crowd of experts. After proposing a general definition distinguishing prediction contests from other mechanisms for harnessing the wisdom of crowds, we examine two common types of prediction contests. For both point forecasting contests and pick-the-winners contests,(More)