Philip Scarf

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In this paper, I consider decision making about routes in mountain navigation. In particular, I discuss Naismith's rule, a method of calculating journey times in mountainous terrain, and its use for route choice. The rule is essentially concerned with the equivalence, in terms of time duration, between climb or ascent and distance travelled. Naismith(More)
The technique of machinery fault diagnosis has been greatly enhanced over recent years with the application of many pattern classification methods. However, these classification methods suffer from the ‘‘curse of dimensionality’’ when applied to high-dimensional fault diagnosis data. In order to solve the problem, this paper proposes a hybrid model which(More)
Negative binomial distributions are fitted to partnership scores and innings scores in test cricket. For partnership scores, we use a parametric model that allows us to consider run rate as a covariate in the distribution of runs scored and hence to use run rate as a surrogate for batting strategy. Then we describe the implied influence of run rate on match(More)
Most mathematical models of athletic training require the quantification of training intensity and quantity or 'dose'. We aim to summarize both the methods available for such quantification, particularly in relation to cycle sport, and the mathematical techniques that may be used to model the relationship between training and performance. Endurance athletes(More)
This paper analyses declaration and the follow-on decisions in test cricket. We model the match outcome given the end of first, second and third innings positions; data on 391 test matches, from the period 1997 to 2007, are used to fit the models. We then investigate how declaration strategy should vary from innings to innings, and how the nature and(More)
In general, the evaluation of player performance in test cricket is based on measures such as batting and bowling averages. These measures have a number of limitations, among which is that they fail to take into account the context in which runs are made or conceded and wickets are taken or given away. Furthermore, batting and bowling averages do not allow(More)
Philip Scarf, Centre for OR and Applied Statistics, University of Salford, Salford M5 4WT, UK Introduction Looking out over the South Pennines in mid-winter, through the driving rain, we can see flat topped hills, drab and uninviting. The heather, dark at this time of year, gives them a foreboding aspect. When walking and faced with a choice to go over or(More)
We used data from international cycle stage races to examine a rule for cyclists that is similar to Naismith's rule. Naismith's rule is used by walkers to estimate travel times for routes involving climb (i.e. the vertical distance component of a route). The rule is also used in route choice decision-making to compare differing, competing routes. We(More)