This paper surveys efficient techniques for estimating, via simulation, the probabilities of certain rare events in queueing and reliability models. The rare events of interest are long waiting times or buffer overflows in queueing systems, and system failure events in reliability models of highly dependable computing systems. The general approach to… (More)
This paper discusses a method for placing confidence limits on the steady state mean of an output sequence generated by a discrete event simulation. An estimate of the variance is obtained by estimating the spectral density at zero frequency. This estimation is accomplished through a regression analysis of the logarithm of the averaged periodogram. By… (More)
This paper considers the application of importance sampling to simulations of highly available systems. By regenerative process theory, steady state performance measures of a Markov chain take the form of a ratio. Analysis of a simple three state Birth and Death process shows that the optimal (zero variance) importance sampling distributions for the… (More)
The main interconnect of the massively parallel Blue Genet/L is a three-dimensional torus network with dynamic virtual cut-through routing. This paper describes both the architecture and the microarchitecture of the torus and a network performance simulator. Both simulation results and hardware measurements are presented.
1 Motivation The estimation of rare event probabilities poses some of the of the most diicult computational challenges for Monte Carlo simulation and, at the same time, some of the greatest opportunities for eeciency improvement through the use of variance reduction techniques. Current i n terest in rare events stems primarily from developments in computer… (More)
We consider the eecient estimation, via simulation, of very low buuer overrow probabilities in certain acyclic ATM queueing networks. We apply the theory of eeective bandwidths and Markov additive processes to derive an asymptotically optimal simulation scheme for estimating such probabilities for a single queue with multiple independent sources, each of… (More)