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Short-term earthquake prediction, months in advance, is an elusive goal of earth sciences, of great importance for fundamental science and for disaster preparedness. Here, we describe a methodology for short-term prediction named RTP (Reverse Tracing of Precursors). Using this methodology the San Simeon earthquake in Central California (magnitude 6.5, Dec.… (More)

- V . Keilis - Borok, Peter Shebalin, Andrei Gabrielov, Donald Turcotte
- 2003

12 We introduce a new approach to short-term earthquake prediction named “Reverse Tracing of Precursors” (RTP), since it considers precursors in reverse order of their appearance. First, we detect the “candidates” for the short-term precursors; in our case, these are newly introduced chains of earthquakes reflecting the rise of an earthquake correlation… (More)

We apply to the observed seismicity of Lesser Antilles a short term earthquake precursor which has been recently found by analysis of synthetic seismicity. The latter was generated by a lattice-type “Colliding Cascades” model of interacting elements. Precursor named ROC depicted premonitory increase of the earthquakes correlation range. Here, this precursor… (More)

We estimate the loading rate in southern California and the change in stress induced by a transient slip event across the San Andreas fault (SAF) system in central California, using a model of static fatigue. We analyze temporal properties of aftershocks in order to determine the time delay before the onset of the power law aftershock decay rate. In… (More)

1International Institute for Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Ac. Sci., Warshavskoe sh., 79, korp. 2, Moscow, 113556, Russia 2Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics, University of California, Los Angeles, California, 90095-1567, U.S.A. 3Department of Earth and Space Sciences, University of California, Los Angeles,… (More)

- Clément Narteau, Svetlana Byrdina, Peter Shebalin, Danijel Schorlemmer
- Nature
- 2009

Two of the long-standing relationships of statistical seismology are power laws: the Gutenberg-Richter relation describing the earthquake frequency-magnitude distribution, and the Omori-Utsu law characterizing the temporal decay of aftershock rate following a main shock. Recently, the effect of stress on the slope (the b value) of the earthquake… (More)

- Takahiro Hatano, Clément Narteau, Peter Shebalin
- Scientific reports
- 2015

Both earthquake size-distributions and aftershock decay rates obey power laws. Recent studies have demonstrated the sensibility of their parameters to faulting properties such as focal mechanism, rupture speed or fault complexity. The faulting style dependence may be related to the magnitude of the differential stress, but no model so far has been able to… (More)

- Svetlana Byrdina, Peter Shebalin, L. Le Mouël
- 2008

In order to estimate the hazard rate distribution of the largest seismic events in Vrancea, South-Eastern Carpathians, we study temporal properties of historical and instrumental catalogues of seismicity. First, on the basis of Generalized Extreme Value theory we estimate the average return period of the largest events. Then, following Bak et al. (2002) and… (More)

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