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We apply to the observed seismicity of Lesser Antilles a short term earthquake precursor which has been recently found by analysis of synthetic seismicity. The latter was generated by a lattice-type " Colliding Cascades " model of interacting elements. Precursor named ROC depicted premonitory increase of the earthquakes correlation range. Here, this… (More)

12 We introduce a new approach to short-term earthquake prediction named " Reverse Tracing of Precursors " (RTP), since it considers precursors in reverse order of their appearance. First, we detect the " candidates " for the short-term precursors; in our case, these are newly introduced chains of earthquakes reflecting the rise of an earthquake correlation… (More)

- C. Narteau, P. Shebalin
- 2008

We estimate the loading rate in southern Califor-nia and the change in stress induced by a transient slip event across the San Andreas fault (SAF) system in central Cali-fornia, using a model of static fatigue. We analyze temporal properties of aftershocks in order to determine the time delay before the onset of the power law aftershock decay rate. In… (More)

- V I Keilis-Borok, P N Shebalin, I V Zaliapin
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences…
- 2002

This article explores the problem of short-term earthquake prediction based on spatio-temporal variations of seismicity. Previous approaches to this problem have used precursory seismicity patterns that precede large earthquakes with "intermediate" lead times of years. Examples include increases of earthquake correlation range and increases of seismic… (More)

Short-term earthquake prediction, months in advance, is an elusive goal of earth sciences, of great importance for fundamental science and for disaster preparedness. Here, we describe a methodology for short-term prediction named RTP (Reverse Tracing of Precursors). The physical basis of RTP can be summed up as follows: An earthquake is generated by two… (More)

- Clément Narteau, Svetlana Byrdina, Peter Shebalin, Danijel Schorlemmer
- Nature
- 2009

Two of the long-standing relationships of statistical seismology are power laws: the Gutenberg-Richter relation describing the earthquake frequency-magnitude distribution, and the Omori-Utsu law characterizing the temporal decay of aftershock rate following a main shock. Recently, the effect of stress on the slope (the b value) of the earthquake… (More)

Tokachi-oki earthquake in northern Japan, September 25, 2003, magnitude 8.1, was predicted six months in advance by a short-term earthquake precursor " chain " that reflects an increase of the correlation range among small earthquakes. This prediction is part of the ongoing test of a new short-term prediction method; the test covers territories of Japan,… (More)

- Takahiro Hatano, Clément Narteau, Peter Shebalin
- Scientific reports
- 2015

Both earthquake size-distributions and aftershock decay rates obey power laws. Recent studies have demonstrated the sensibility of their parameters to faulting properties such as focal mechanism, rupture speed or fault complexity. The faulting style dependence may be related to the magnitude of the differential stress, but no model so far has been able to… (More)

- S. Byrdina, P. Shebalin, L. Le Mouël
- 2008

In order to estimate the hazard rate distribution of the largest seismic events in Vrancea, SouthEastern Carpathians, we study temporal properties of historical and instrumental catalogues of seismicity. First, on the basis of Generalized Extreme Value theory we estimate the average return period of the largest events. Then, following Bak et al. (2002) and… (More)

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