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– Obsolescence of electronic parts is a major contributor to the life cycle cost of long-field life systems such as avionics. A methodology to forecast life cycles of electronic parts is presented, in which both years to obsolescence and life cycle stages are predicted. The methodology embeds both market and technology factors based on the dynamic(More)
Case studies were conducted using a stochastic model to predict the life cycle cost impact associated with the application of prognostic health management (PHM) to helicopter avionics. The life cycle costs of systems that assumed unscheduled maintenance and fixed-interval scheduled maintenance were compared to the costs of precursor-to-failure and life(More)
This paper presents a model that enables the optimal interpretation of Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) results for electronic systems. In this context, optimal interpretation of PHM results means translating PHM information into maintenance policies and decisions that minimize life cycle costs, or maximize availability or some other utility(More)
SUMMARY & CONCLUSIONS This paper presents a model that enables the determination of when scheduled maintenance makes sense, and how to optimally interpret Prognostic Health Management (PHM) results for electronic systems. In this context, optimal interpretation of PHM results means translating PHM information into maintenance policies that minimize life(More)
Many technologies have life cycles that are shorter than the life cycle of the product or system they are in. Life cycle mismatches caused by the obsolescence of technology can result in large life cycle costs for long field life systems, such as aircraft, ships, communications infrastructure, power plant and grid management, and military systems. This(More)
This paper presents a warranty forecasting method based on stochastic simulation of expected product warranty returns. This methodology is presented in the context of a high-volume product industry and has a specific application to automotive electronics. The warranty prediction model is based on a piecewise application of Weibull and exponential(More)
Many technologies have lifecycles that are shorter than the lifecycle of the product they are in. Lifecycle mismatches caused by the obsolescence of technology (and particularly the obsolescence of electronic parts) results in high sustainment costs for long field life systems, e.g., avionics and military systems. This paper presents a methodology for(More)
This paper presents a test/diagnosis/rework analysis model for use in technical cost modeling of electronic assemblies. The approach includes a model of test operations characterized by fault coverage, false positives, and defects introduced in test, in addition to rework and diagnosis operations that have variable success rates and their own defect(More)
– Product sustainment means keeping an existing system operational and maintaining the ability to continue to manufacture and field versions of the system that satisfy the original requirements. Sustainment also includes manufacturing and fielding revised versions of the system that satisfy evolving requirements, which often requires the replacement of(More)