Peter H. Millard

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The empirical distribution of length of stay of patients in departments of geriatric medicine is fit extremely well by a sum of two exponentials. Most of the patients in a geriatric department are rehabilitated and discharged or they die within a few weeks of admission, but the few who become long-stay patients remain for months or even years. A model is(More)
The flow of patients through geriatric hospitals has been previously described in terms of acute (short-stay), rehabilitation (medium-stay), and long-stay states where the bed occupancy at a census point is modelled by a mixed exponential model using BOMPS (Bed Occupancy Modelling and Planning System). In this a patient is initially admitted to acute care.(More)
Resource management is an essential feature of hospital management. This is especially true for geriatric services, as older people often have complex medical and social needs. Hospital management should benefit from an explanatory model that provides predictions of duration of stay and destination on discharge. We describe how a Bayesian belief network(More)
Thyrotrophin-releasing hormone and gonadotrophin-releasing hormone were measured in lumbar CSF from patients with idiopathic senile dementia, cerebral tumours and spinal disc lesions. Somatostatin was also measured in lumbar CSF from patients with dementia and patients with other neurological disorders, but the numbers involved were much smaller. The levels(More)
In the South-west Thames Region 2619 patients (2105 women and 514 men) were discharged with a diagnosis of femoral neck fracture in 1974. The equivalent of a 250-bedded hospital was occupied throughout the year. The incidence, average length of stay, and mortality rate rose with increasing age and there were differences in these indices in the five health(More)
Understanding the pattern of length of stay in institutional long-term care has important practical implications in the management of long-term care. Furthermore, residents' attributes are believed to have significant effects on these patterns. In this paper, we present a model-based approach to extract, from a routinely gathered administrative social care(More)
Surgical departments treat two groups of inpatients--the simple and the complex--consequently a single average fails to describe the use being made of the occupied beds. Using decision support techniques, we show why indicators such as the average length, the average occupancy and the average admissions mislead. Furthermore, by analysing the fluctuating(More)
Healthcare resource planners need to develop policies that ensure optimal allocation of scarce healthcare resources. This goal can be achieved by forecasting daily resource requirements for a given admission policy. If resources are limited, admission should be scheduled according to the resource availability. Such resource availability or demand can change(More)
Clinical investigators, health professionals and managers are often interested in developing criteria for clustering patients into clinically meaningful groups according to their expected length of stay. In this paper, we propose two novel types of survival trees; phase-type survival trees and mixed distribution survival trees, which extend previous work on(More)
The planning of services within a hospital is a complex task which relies on the availability of accurate data. Such data on patterns of bed occupancy enable us to develop tools which assess performance measures based on activity within a hospital and its beds, and hence they improve the efficiency of bed management and they facilitate the more effective(More)