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The empirical distribution of length of stay of patients in departments of geriatric medicine is fit extremely well by a sum of two exponentials. Most of the patients in a geriatric department are rehabilitated and discharged or they die within a few weeks of admission, but the few who become long-stay patients remain for months or even years. A model is(More)
The planning of services within a hospital is a complex task which relies on the availability of accurate data. Such data on patterns of bed occupancy enable us to develop tools which assess performance measures based on activity within a hospital and its beds, and hence they improve the efficiency of bed management and they facilitate the more effective(More)
Resource management is an essential feature of hospital management. This is especially true for geriatric services, as older people often have complex medical and social needs. Hospital management should benefit from an explanatory model that provides predictions of duration of stay and destination on discharge. We describe how a Bayesian belief network(More)
In the South-west Thames Region 2619 patients (2105 women and 514 men) were discharged with a diagnosis of femoral neck fracture in 1974. The equivalent of a 250-bedded hospital was occupied throughout the year. The incidence, average length of stay, and mortality rate rose with increasing age and there were differences in these indices in the five health(More)
Mortality in the elderly is affected by external temperature at both extremes. Admissions to a geriatric unit during the hot summer of 1983 were compared with those in the same period in 1982, a typically British summer. There were 382 admissions and 69 deaths in 1982, and 468 admissions and 90 deaths during the same 22-week period in 1983. The principal(More)
By integrating queuing theory and compartmental models of flow we demonstrate how changing admission rates, length of stay and bed allocation influence bed occupancy, emptiness and rejection in departments of geriatric medicine. By extending the model to include waiting beds, we show how the provision of extra, emergency use, unstaffed, back up beds could(More)
Thyrotrophin-releasing hormone and gonadotrophin-releasing hormone were measured in lumbar CSF from patients with idiopathic senile dementia, cerebral tumours and spinal disc lesions. Somatostatin was also measured in lumbar CSF from patients with dementia and patients with other neurological disorders, but the numbers involved were much smaller. The levels(More)
Understanding the pattern of length of stay in institutional long-term care has important practical implications in the management of long-term care. Furthermore, residents' attributes are believed to have significant effects on these patterns. In this paper, we present a model-based approach to extract, from a routinely gathered administrative social care(More)
The flow of patients through geriatric hospitals has been previously described in terms of acute (short-stay), rehabilitation (medium-stay), and long-stay states where the bed occupancy at a census point is modelled by a mixed exponential model using BOMPS (Bed Occupancy Modelling and Planning System). In this a patient is initially admitted to acute care.(More)