Paul C. Price

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We investigated a phenomenon called judgmental overshadowing. Subjects predicted whether each of several patients had a disease on the basis of whether or not the patient had each of two symptoms. For all the subjects, the presence of the disease was moderately contingent on the presence of one of the symptoms (S1). In Condition 1 of our first experiment,(More)
In Experiments 1 and 2, college students (N = 32 and N = 18, respectively) read heart attack risk profiles (i.e., lists of risk factors) for each of several employees at a series of fictional companies and judged the heart attack risk of the typical employee at each company. In both experiments, subjects' risk judgments increased as a function of the number(More)
The group-diffusion effect is the tendency for people to judge themselves to be less likely to experience a negative outcome as the total number of people exposed to the threat increases — even when the probability of the outcome is explicitly presented (Yamaguchi, 1998). In Experiment 1 we replicated this effect for two health threat scenarios using a(More)
The present research concerns the hypothesis that intuitive estimates of the arithmetic mean of a sample of numbers tend to increase as a function of the sample size; that is, they reflect a systematic sample size bias. A similar bias has been observed when people judge the average member of a group of people on an inferred quantity (e.g., a disease risk;(More)
Previous research has shown that people exhibit a sample size bias when judging the average of a set of stimuli on a single dimension. The more stimuli there are in the set, the greater people judge the average to be. This effect has been demonstrated reliably for judgments of the average likelihood that groups of people will experience negative, positive,(More)
The editor-in-chief, deputy editor, associate editors, editorial board, and staff of Medical Decision Making, the journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making, acknowledge and thank the following people for their assistance in reviewing manuscripts during 2013. The journal’s success rests in large measure on the quality and promptness of reviews. The(More)
In 5 experiments, college students exhibited a group size effect on risk judgments. As the number of individuals in a target group increased, so did participants' judgments of the risk of the average member of the group for a variety of negative life events. This happened regardless of whether the stimuli consisted of photographs of real peers or(More)
reminded of some less competent co-worker who absolutely swears by a clearly ineffective teaching approach. A third is concern. You always thought you were better than average, but now you might start to wonder. Perhaps your teaching skills are not what you’ve always imagined them to be. Unfortunately, the most appropriate reaction—concern—is also the least(More)