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This paper …rst documents several important business cycle properties of health status and health expenditures in the US. We …nd that health expenditures are pro-cyclical while health status is counter-cyclical. We then develop a stochastic dynamic general equilibrium model with endogenous health accumulation. The model has four distinct features: 1) Both(More)
THE CONCEPT of a natural unemployment rate has been central to most modern models of inflation and stabilization. According to these models, inflation will accelerate or decelerate depending on whether unemployment is below or above the natural rate, while any existing rate of inflation will continue if unemployment is at the natural rate. The natural rate(More)
This paper examines whether negative innovations to GNP are more or less persistent than positive innovations. We find that once we allow for the impulse response ofGNP to be asymmetric, negative innovations to GNP are observed to be much less persistent than positive ones. In particular, the effect of a recession on the forecast of output is found to be(More)
It is often argued that changes in expectation are an important driving force of the business cycle. However, it is well known that changes in expectations cannot generate positive co-movement between consumption, investment and employment in the most standard neo-classical business cycle models. This gives rise to the question of whether changes in(More)
This paper studies the nature of business cycle variation in individual earnings risk using a confidential dataset from the U.S. Social Security Administration, which contains (uncapped) earnings histories for millions of individuals. The base sample is a nationally representative panel containing 10 percent of all U.S. males from 1978 to 2010. We use these(More)
PURPOSE There is an unmet need for noninvasive markers to measure the biological effects of targeted agents, particularly those inhibiting the vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) receptor (VEGFR) pathway, and identify patients most likely to benefit from treatment. In this study, we investigated potential blood-based biomarkers for SU11248 (sunitinib(More)
PURPOSE Circulating endothelial cells (CEC) comprise at least two distinct populations: bone marrow-derived circulating endothelial progenitors (CEP) and mature CECs derived from existing vasculature. We hypothesized that antiangiogenic agents may have differential effects on CEPs and mature CECs and that these changes may serve as a marker of biological(More)
The balance between the activities of matrix metalloproteinases (MMPs) and the tissue inhibitors of metalloproteinases (TIMPs) is an important control point in tissue remodeling. Previous studies have demonstrated elevated expression of the MMPs collagenase and stromelysin-1 by aged human diploid fibroblasts compared to early-passage cultures. We show here(More)