Patrick J. Kehoe

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A growth model with shocks to technology is studied. Labor is indivisible, so all variability in hours worked is due to fluctuations in the number employed. We find that, unlike previous equilibrium models of the business cycle, this economy displays large fluctuations in hours worked and relatively small fluctuations in productivity. This finding is(More)
Recent sovereign defaults in emerging countries are accompanied by interest rate spikes and deep recessions. This paper develops a small open economy model to study default risk and its interaction with output, consumption, and foreign debt. Default probabilities and interest rates depend on incentives for repayment. Default occurs in equilibrium because(More)
The central puzzle in international business cycles is that fluctuations in real exchange rates are volatile and persistent. We quantify the popular story for real exchange rate fluctuations: they are generated by monetary shocks interacting with sticky goods prices. If prices are held fixed for at least one year, risk aversion is high, and preferences are(More)
We find that in a sample of emerging economies business cycles are more volatile than in developed ones, real interest rates are countercyclical and lead the cycle, consumption is more volatile than output and net exports are strongly countercyclical. We present a model of a small open economy, where the real interest rate is decomposed in an international(More)
We present a two-country, two-good model in which there do not exist any markets for international trade in ̄nancial assets. We compare the predictions of this model to those of two other models, one in which markets are complete and a second in which a single non-contingent bond is traded. We ̄nd that only the ̄nancial autarky model can generate(More)
The Folk Theorem obtains in repeated games with imperfect public information if for each pair of agents there is at least one action profile where the information revealed by the publicly observed outcome permits deviations by one of the agents to be statistically distinguished from deviations by the other, and the dimension of the set of feasible payoffs(More)
I develop a new theory of marketing costs and introduce it into a model of trade with product differentiation and firm productivity heterogeneity. In this model, a firm enters a market if it makes profits by reaching a single consumer there and pays an increasing marginal cost to access additional consumers. This market penetration cost introduces an(More)
We contrast properties of real quantities with those of price levels and stocks of money for ten countries over the last century. Although the magnitude of output fluctuations has varied across countries and periods, relations among real quantities have been remarkably uniform. Properties of price levels, however, exhibit striking differences between(More)
This paper develops a model of a monetary economy in which individual firms are subject to idiosyncratic productivity shocks as well as general inflation. Sellers can change price only by incurring a real “menu cost.” We calibrate this cost and the variance and autocorrelation of the idiosyncratic shock using a new U.S. data set of individual prices due to(More)
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