Patrick J Heagerty

Learn More
ROC curves are a popular method for displaying sensitivity and specificity of a continuous diagnostic marker, X, for a binary disease variable, D. However, many disease outcomes are time dependent, D(t), and ROC curves that vary as a function of time may be more appropriate. A common example of a time-dependent variable is vital status, where D(t) = 1 if a(More)
BACKGROUND Vertebroplasty is commonly used to treat painful, osteoporotic vertebral compression fractures. METHODS In this multicenter trial, we randomly assigned 131 patients who had one to three painful osteoporotic vertebral compression fractures to undergo either vertebroplasty or a simulated procedure without cement (control group). The primary(More)
BACKGROUND The U.S. population of former prison inmates is large and growing. The period immediately after release may be challenging for former inmates and may involve substantial health risks. We studied the risk of death among former inmates soon after their release from Washington State prisons. METHODS We conducted a retrospective cohort study of all(More)
Likelihood-based inference for longitudinal binary data can be obtained using a generalized linear mixed model (Breslow, N. and Clayton, D. G., 1993, Journal of the American Statistical Association 88, 9-25; Wolfinger, R. and O'Connell, M., 1993, Journal of Statistical Computation and Simulation 48, 233-243), given the recent improvements in computational(More)
Mutations in certain genes that regulate the cell cycle, such as p16 and p53, are frequently found in human cancers. However, tumor-specific mutations are uncommon in genes encoding cyclin E and the CDK inhibitor p27Kip1, two cell-cycle regulators that are also thought to contribute to tumor progression. It is now known that levels of both cyclin E and p27(More)
We conducted a randomized controlled trial to evaluate whether dialectical behavior therapy (DBT), a treatment that synthesizes behavioral change with radical acceptance strategies, would be more effective for heroin-dependent women with borderline personality disorder (N = 23) than Comprehensive Validation Therapy with 12-Step (CVT + 12S), a manualized(More)
Men who have sex with men (MSM) continue to account for the largest number of new HIV infections in the United States, but limited data exist on independent risk factors for infection beyond the early 1990s. The HIV Network for Prevention Trials Vaccine Preparedness Study enrolled 3257 MSM in 6 US cities from 1995 to 1997. HIV seroincidence was 1.55 per 100(More)
Marginal generalized linear models are now frequently used for the analysis of longitudinal data. Semiparametric inference for marginal models was introduced by Liang and Zeger (1986, Biometrics 73, 13-22). This article develops a general parametric class of serial dependence models that permits likelihood-based marginal regression analysis of binary(More)
CONTEXT Diabetes is the leading cause of kidney disease in the developed world. Over time, the prevalence of diabetic kidney disease (DKD) may increase due to the expanding size of the diabetes population or decrease due to the implementation of diabetes therapies. OBJECTIVE To define temporal changes in DKD prevalence in the United States. DESIGN,(More)