Learn More
We study the inflation uncertainty reported by individual forecasters in the Survey of Professional Forecasters 1969-2001. Three popular measures of uncertainty built from survey data are analyzed in the context of models for forecasting and asset pricing, and improved estimation methods are suggested. Popular time series models are evaluated for their(More)
Adaptive Metropolis-Hastings samplers use information obtained from previous draws to tune the proposal distribution. The tuning is carried out automatically, often repeatedly, and continues after the burn-in period. Because the resulting chain is not Markovian, adaptation needs to be done carefully to ensure convergence to the correct ergodic distribution.(More)
We summarize some methods useful in formulating and solving Hansen–Sargent robust control problems, and suggest extensions to discretion and simple rules. Matlab, Octave, and Gauss software is provided. We illustrate these extensions with applications to the term structure of interest rates, the time inconsistency of optimal monetary policy, the eeects of(More)
Time series subject to parameter shifts of random magnitude and timing are commonly modeled with a change-point approach using Chib's (1998) algorithm to draw the break dates. We outline some advantages of an alternative approach in which breaks come through mixture distributions in state innovations, and for which the sampler of Gerlach, Carter and Kohn(More)
This paper proposes an explanation for the frequent appearance of a price puzzle in VARs designed for monetary policy analysis. It assumes that the data are generated by a model in which output and output gap are not equivalent, while an econometrician follows the common practice of including only output in the VAR. The omission of the output gap is shown(More)
  • Karl Walentin, Peter Sellin, Mikael Carlsson, Matthieu Darracq-Paries, Daria Finocchiaro, Paolo Giordani +4 others
  • 2010
In this paper our main aim is to quantify the role that housing collateral plays for the monetary transmission mechanism. Furthermore, we want to explore the implications of the increase in household indebtedness, and speci…cally the loan-to-value ratio, in the last two decades. We set up a two sector DSGE model with production of goods and housing.(More)
The Working Paper series presents reports on matters in the sphere of activities of the Riksbank that are considered to be of interest to a wider public. The papers are to be regarded as reports on ongoing studies and the authors will be pleased to receive comments. The views expressed in Working Papers are solely the responsibility of the authors and(More)
Ifosfamide and cisplatin cause urinary loss of carnitine, which is a fundamental molecule for energy production in mammalian cells. We investigated whether restoration of the carnitine pool might improve chemotherapy-induced fatigue in non-anaemic cancer patients. Consecutive patients with low plasma carnitine levels who experienced fatigue during(More)
  • Per Jansson, Anders Vredin, Peter Lundkvist, Hanna Widell, Stefan Wredenborg, Göran Zettergren +15 others
  • 2001
The use of explicit inflation targets has meant that monetary policy has become more transparent and also easier to evaluate. The analysis in this paper is based on forecasts by Sveriges Riksbank (the central bank of Sweden) on real output and inflation. Our purpose is to separate the effects on the interest-rate instrument from (i) discretionary changes in(More)