Pamela Pen-Erh Pei

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BACKGROUND U.S. HIV treatment guidelines recommend branded once-daily, 1-pill efavirenz-emtricitabine-tenofovir as first-line antiretroviral therapy (ART). With the anticipated approval of generic efavirenz in the United States, a once-daily, 3-pill alternative (generic efavirenz, generic lamivudine, and tenofovir) will decrease cost but may reduce(More)
BACKGROUND Point-of-care CD4 tests at HIV diagnosis could improve linkage to care in resource-limited settings. Our objective is to evaluate the clinical and economic impact of point-of-care CD4 tests compared to laboratory-based tests in Mozambique. METHODS AND FINDINGS We use a validated model of HIV testing, linkage, and treatment (CEPAC-International)(More)
BACKGROUND The ARTEMIS trial compared first-line antiretroviral therapy (ART) with lopinavir/ritonavir (LPV/r) to darunavir plus ritonavir (DRV + RTV) for HIV-1-infected subjects. In order to fully assess the implications of this study, economic modelling extrapolating over a longer term is required. OBJECTIVE The aim of this study was to simulate the(More)
Understanding HIV transmission dynamics is critical to estimating the potential population-wide impact of HIV prevention and treatment interventions. We developed an individual-based simulation model of the heterosexual HIV epidemic in South Africa and linked it to the previously published Cost-Effectiveness of Preventing AIDS Complications (CEPAC)(More)
We analyze the structure and pricing of option contracts for an industrial good in the presence of spot trading. We combine the analysis of spot trading and buyers’ disparate private valuations for different suppliers’ products, and jointly endogenize the determination of three major dimensions in contract design: (i) sales contracts versus options(More)
We present in this work a unified approach and provide the optimal solution to the pricing problem of option contracts for a supplier of an industrial good in the presence of spot trading. Specifically, our approach fully and jointly endogenizes the determination of three major characteristics in contract design, namely (i) Sales contracts versus options(More)
BACKGROUND Several cluster-randomized HIV prevention trials aim to demonstrate the population-level preventive impact of antiretroviral therapy (ART). 2013 World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines raising the ART initiation threshold to CD4 <500/µL could attenuate these trials' effect size by increasing ART usage in control clusters. METHODS We used a(More)
OBJECTIVE To examine the clinical and economic value of point-of-care CD4 (POC-CD4) or viral load (VL) monitoring compared to current practices in Mozambique, a country representative of the diverse resource limitations encountered by HIV treatment programs in sub-Saharan Africa. DESIGN/METHODS We use the CEPAC-I model to examine the clinical impact, cost(More)
BACKGROUND Value of Information (VOI) analysis examines whether to acquire information before making a decision. We introduced VOI to the HIV audience, using the example of generic antiretroviral therapy (ART) in the US. METHODS AND FINDINGS We used a mathematical model and probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) to generate probability distributions of(More)
BACKGROUND The expected value of sample information (EVSI) can help prioritize research but its application is hampered by computational infeasibility, especially for complex models. We investigated an approach by Strong and colleagues to estimate EVSI by applying generalized additive models (GAM) to results generated from a probabilistic sensitivity(More)
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