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Climate Change 2021—The Physical Science Basis
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the United Nations body responsible for assessing the science related to climate change. The Sixth Report from IPCC Working Group 1 published…
Understanding and Attributing Climate Change
The proportionality of global warming to cumulative carbon emissions
It is shown that the carbon–climate response (CCR), defined as the ratio of temperature change to cumulative carbon emissions, is approximately independent of both the atmospheric CO2 concentration and its rate of change on these timescales.
Detection and attribution of climate change: from global to regional
This chapter assesses the causes of observed changes assessed in Chapters 2 to 5 and uses understanding of physical processes, climate models and statistical approaches. The chapter adopts the…
A Summary of the CMIP5 Experiment Design
The purpose of these experiments is to address outstanding scientific questions that arose as part of the IPCC AR4 assessment process, improve understanding of climate, and to provide estimates of future climate change that will be useful to those considering its possible consequences.
Detection of a direct carbon dioxide effect in continental river runoff records
- N. Gedney, P. Cox, R. Betts, O. Boucher, C. Huntingford, P. Stott
- Environmental ScienceNature
- 16 February 2006
A mechanistic land-surface model and optimal fingerprinting statistical techniques are used to attribute observational runoff changes into contributions due to climate change and variability, and find that the trends are consistent with a suppression of plant transpiration due to CO2-induced stomatal closure.
Human contribution to the European heatwave of 2003
It is very likely (confidence level >90%) that human influence has at least doubled the risk of a heatwave exceeding this threshold magnitude in 2003, but in no other year since the start of the instrumental record in 1851.
An Observationally Based Estimate of the Climate Sensitivity
Abstract A probability distribution for values of the effective climate sensitivity, with a lower bound of 1.6 K (5th percentile), is obtained on the basis of the increase in ocean heat content in…
Climate Change 2013. The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change - Abstract for decision-makers
Foreword Preface Summary for policy makers Technical summary 1. Introduction 2. Observations: atmosphere and surface 3. Observations: ocean 4. Observations: cryosphere 5. Information from…
Estimating signal amplitudes in optimal fingerprinting, part I: theory
Abstract There is increasingly clear evidence that human influence has contributed substantially to the large-scale climatic changes that have occurred over the past few decades. Attention is now…