Olga Kostopoulou

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Physicians often encounter diagnostic problems with ambiguous and conflicting features. What are they likely to do in such situations? We presented a diagnostic scenario to 84 family physicians and traced their information gathering, diagnoses and management. The scenario contained an ambiguous feature, while the other features supported either a cardiac or(More)
UNLABELLED The Learning Health System (LHS) describes linking routine healthcare systems directly with both research translation and knowledge translation as an extension of the evidence-based medicine paradigm, taking advantage of the ubiquitous use of electronic health record (EHR) systems. TRANSFoRm is an EU FP7 project that seeks to develop an(More)
BACKGROUND Designers of computerised diagnostic support systems (CDSSs) expect physicians to notice when they need advice and enter into the CDSS all information that they have gathered about the patient. The poor use of CDSSs and the tendency not to follow advice once a leading diagnosis emerges would question this expectation. AIM To determine whether(More)
Information distortion is a cognitive bias in sequential diagnostic reasoning. Assumptions about the diagnostic validity of later evidence are distorted in favor of the leading hypothesis. Therefore the bias contributes to a primacy effect. Current parallel constraint satisfaction models account for order effects and coherence shifts, but do not explain(More)
The unconscious thought theory argues that making complex decisions after a period of distraction can lead to better decision quality than deciding either immediately or after conscious deliberation. Two studies have tested this unconscious thought effect (UTE) in clinical diagnosis with conflicting results. The studies used different methodologies and had(More)
Accurate perception of medical probabilities communicated to patients is a cornerstone of informed decision making. People, however, are prone to biases in probability perception. Recently, Pighin and others extended the list of such biases with evidence that "1-in-X" ratios (e.g., "1 in 12") led to greater perceived probability and worry about health(More)
Based on research on the increasingly popular unconscious thought effect (UTE), it has been suggested that physicians might make better diagnostic decisions after a period of distraction than after an equivalent amount of time of conscious deliberation. However, published attempts to demonstrate the UTE in medical decision making have yielded inconsistent(More)
BACKGROUND First impressions are thought to exert a disproportionate influence on subsequent judgments; however, their role in medical diagnosis has not been systematically studied. We aimed to elicit and measure the association between first impressions and subsequent diagnoses in common presentations with subtle indications of cancer. METHODS Ninety UK(More)
"Predecisional information distortion" occurs when decision makers evaluate new information in a way that is biased towards their leading option. The phenomenon is well established, as is the method typically used to measure it, termed "stepwise evolution of preference" (SEP). An inadequacy of this method has recently come to the fore: it measures(More)
benefit from " unconscious thought " ? Medical Decision Making. ABSTRACT The Unconscious Thought Theory argues that making complex decisions after a period of distraction can lead to better decision quality than deciding either immediately or after conscious deliberation. Two studies have tested this Unconscious Thought Effect (UTE) in clinical diagnosis(More)