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Estimation is influenced by a variety of processes: application of heuristics, domain-specific reasoning, and intuitive statistical induction, among them. In this article, we propose the metrics and mapping framework to account for how these processes are integrated to generate estimates. This framework identifies 2 types of information as critical:(More)
In 2 experiments, the authors investigated how representations of global geography are updated when people learn new location information about individual cities. Participants estimated the latitude of cities in North America (Experiment 1) and in the Old and New Worlds (Experiment 2). After making their first estimates, participants were given information(More)
Propositional reasoning is the ability to draw conclusions on the basis of sentence connectives such as and, if, or, and not. A psychological theory of prepositional reasoning explains the mental operations that underlie this ability. The ANDS (A Natural Deduction System) model, described in the following pages, is one such theory that makes explicit(More)
Exposure to numerical examples (seed facts) produced a substantial long-term reduction in domain-specific innumeracy. In particular, learning the populations of 24 seed countries improved accuracy of estimates of the populations of 75 untrained countries, both at the time of learning and 4 months later. Consistent with abstraction-based theories of learning(More)
When people estimate event frequency, they sometimes retrieve and count event instances. This study demonstrates a direct relation between the use of these enumeration-based strategies and the contents of memory. In 3 experiments, participants studied target-context word pairs, estimated presentation frequency for target words, and recalled context words.(More)
—The present study employed a method called event cuing to investigate the organization of autobiographical memory. The unique feature of this method is the use of event descriptions as retrieval cues. Participants first recalled a set of personal events. Next, they responded to each of these cuing events by retrieving a second related personal event (the(More)
In two parallel experiments, conducted 17 months apart, we examined the relations among population estimates, availability, and media coverage of the 100 countries with populations of 4 million or more. The results were consistent with the main hypothesis, that availability influences population estimates. Specifically, we found that (1) rated knowledge of(More)
Exposure to a few task-relevant numerical facts (seed facts) often improves subsequent numerical estimates. We performed two experiments to investigate the mechanism that produces these seeding effects. In Experiment 1, participants estimated national populations; in Experiment 2, they estimated between-city distances. In both, items were selected so that(More)