Nicolas S. Lambert

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This paper studies protocols for eliciting and evaluating statistical forecasts. Nature draws a state at random from a finite state space, according to some distribution p. Prior to Nature’s move, a forecaster, who knows p, provides a prediction for a given statistic of p (i.e., answers a question about p). The protocol defines the forecaster’s payoff as a(More)
We examine a class of wagering mechanisms designed to elicit truthful predictions from a group of people without requiring any outside subsidy. We propose a number of desirable properties for wagering mechanisms, identifying one mechanism - weighted-score wagering - that satisfies all of the properties. Moreover, we show that a single-parameter(More)
We consider the problem of truthfully sampling opinions of a population for statistical analysis purposes, such as estimating the population distribution of opinions. To obtain accurate results, the surveyor must incentivize individuals to report unbiased opinions. We present a rewarding scheme to elicit opinions that are representative of the population.(More)
Suppose a principal Alice wishes to reduce her uncertainty regarding some future payoff. Consider a self-proclaimed expert Bob that may either be an informed expert knowing an exact (or approximate) distribution of a future random outcome that may affect Alice’s utility, or an uninformed expert who knows nothing more than Alice does. Alice would like to(More)
Prequential testing of a forecaster is known to be manipulable if the test must pass an informed forecaster for all possible true distributions. Stewart (2011) provides a non-manipulable prequential likelihood test that only fails an informed forecaster on a small, category I, set of distributions. We present a prequential test based on calibration that(More)
We analyze the computational complexity of market maker pricing algorithms for combinatorial prediction markets. We focus on Hanson's popular logarithmic market scoring rule market maker (LMSR). Our goal is to implicitly maintain correct LMSR prices across an exponentially large outcome space. We examine both permutation combinatorics, where outcomes are(More)
Prosper, the largest online social lending marketplace with nearly a million members and $178 million in funded loans, uses an auction amongst lenders to finance each loan. In each auction, the borrower specifies <i>D</i>, the amount he wants to borrow, and a maximum acceptable interest rate <i>R</i>. Lenders specify the amounts <i>a<sub>i</sub></i> they(More)