Nicky McCreesh

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BACKGROUND Respondent-driven sampling is a novel variant of link-tracing sampling for estimating the characteristics of hard-to-reach groups, such as HIV prevalence in sex workers. Despite its use by leading health organizations, the performance of this method in realistic situations is still largely unknown. We evaluated respondent-driven sampling by(More)
BACKGROUND A number of African countries have planned campaigns against concurrency. It will not be possible to separate the effects of a reduction in concurrency from other behavior changes when evaluating these campaigns. This modeling study explores the potential impact of an intervention to reduce partnership concurrency on HIV incidence in contemporary(More)
BACKGROUND Respondent-driven sampling(RDS) is an increasingly widely used variant of a link tracing design for recruiting hidden populations. The role of the spatial distribution of the target population has not been robustly examined for RDS. We examine patterns of recruitment by location, and how they may have biased an RDS study findings. METHODS(More)
Advances in scientific computing have allowed the development of complex models that are being routinely applied to problems in disease epidemiology, public health and decision making. The utility of these models depends in part on how well they can reproduce empirical data. However, fitting such models to real world data is greatly hindered both by large(More)
INTRODUCTION Respondent-driven sampling (RDS) is a variant of a link-tracing design intended for generating unbiased estimates of the composition of hidden populations that typically involves giving participants several coupons to recruit their peers into the study. RDS may generate biased estimates if coupons are distributed non-randomly or if potential(More)
Respondent-driven sampling (RDS) is a widely-used variant of snowball sampling. Respondents are selected not from a sampling frame, but from a social network of existing members of the sample. Incentives are provided for participation and for the recruitment of others. Ethical and methodological criticisms have been raised about RDS. Our purpose was to(More)
BACKGROUND In high incidence settings, the majority of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (M.tb) transmission occurs outside the household. Little is known about where people's indoor contacts occur outside the household, and how this differs between different settings. We estimate the number of contact hours that occur between adults and adult/youths and children(More)
Complex stochastic models are commonplace in epidemiology, but their utility depends on their calibration to empirical data. History matching is a (pre)calibration method that has been applied successfully to complex deterministic models. In this work, we adapt history matching to stochastic models, by emulating the variance in the model outputs, and(More)
BACKGROUND With ambitious new UNAIDS targets to end AIDS by 2030, and new WHO treatment guidelines, there is increased interest in the best way to scale-up ART coverage. We investigate the cost-effectiveness of various ART scale-up options in Uganda. METHODS Individual-based HIV/ART model of Uganda, calibrated using history matching. 22 ART scale-up(More)