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1 Uncertainty appears to jump up after major shocks like the Cuban Missile crisis, the assassination of JFK, the OPEC I oil-price shock, and the 9/11 terrorist attacks. This paper offers a structural framework to analyze the impact of these uncertainty shocks. I build a model with a time-varying second moment, which is numerically solved and estimated using(More)
This paper investigates the relationship between product market competition (PMC) and innovation. A growth model is developed in which competition may increase the incremental profit from innovating; on the other hand, competition may also reduce innovation incentives for laggards. There are four key predictions. First, the relationship between product(More)
The impact of R&D on growth through spillovers has been a major topic of economic research over the last thirty years. A central problem in the literature is that firm performance is affected by two countervailing " spillovers " : a positive effect from technological knowledge spillovers and negative business stealing effects from product market rivals. We(More)
  • Nicholas Bloom, Max Floetotto, Nir Jaimovich, Itay Saporta-Eksten, Stephen J Terry, Sami Alpanda +3 others
  • 2009
We propose uncertainty shocks as a new shock that drives business cycles. First, we demonstrate that microeconomic uncertainty is robustly countercyclical, rising sharply during recessions, particularly during the Great Recession of 2007-2009. Second, we quantify the impact of time-varying uncertainty on the economy in a dynamic stochastic general(More)
E E conomists have long puzzled over the astounding differences in productiv-conomists have long puzzled over the astounding differences in productivity between fi rms and countries. For example, looking at disaggregated ity between fi rms and countries. For example, looking at disaggregated data on U.S. manufacturing industries, Syverson (2004a) found that(More)
Many commentators argue that uncertainty about fiscal, monetary and regulatory policy slowed recovery from the 2007-2009 recession. To assess this view, we develop a new index of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) that draws on the frequency of newspaper references to policy uncertainty and other indicators. Our index spikes near tight presidential(More)
  • Nicholas Bloom, Benn Eifert, Aprajit Mahajan, David Mckenzie, John Roberts, Asif Abbas +14 others
  • 2010
A long standing question in social science is whether management matters. Certainly management differs across firms, as does performance. However, perhaps every firm chooses its management practices optimally, so that differences across firms simply reflect differences in their environments. To investigate this we run a field experiment on large Indian(More)
This paper studies the unique risk characteristics of organization capital. Using a stock measure of organization capital based on readily available accounting data, we find that firms with more organization capital relative to their industry peers outperform firms with less organization capital by 4.7% per year. A long short portfolio based on the ratio of(More)
U U ncertainty is an amorphous concept. It refl ects uncertainty in the minds of ncertainty is an amorphous concept. It refl ects uncertainty in the minds of consumers, managers, and policymakers about possible futures. It is also a consumers, managers, and policymakers about possible futures. It is also a broad concept, including uncertainty over the path(More)
  • M Street, S W Washington, Shier Berman, Nicholas Bloom, Russell Flegal, Carl Watras +1 other
  • 2000
Acknowledgements This sampling method was prepared under the direction of William A. Telliard of the Engineering and Analysis Division (EAD) within the U.S. Environmental Agency's (EPA's) Office of Science and Technology (OST). The assistance of personnel demonstrating the sampling techniques used by these institutions is gratefully acknowledged. Disclaimer(More)