Nello Blaser

Learn More
OBJECTIVES To determine magnitude and reasons of loss to program and poor antiretroviral prophylaxis coverage in prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) programs in sub-Saharan Africa. DESIGN Systematic review and meta-analysis. METHODS We searched PubMed and Embase databases for PMTCT studies in sub-Saharan Africa published between January(More)
BACKGROUND Monitoring of HIV viral load in patients on combination antiretroviral therapy (ART) is not generally available in resource-limited settings. We examined the cost-effectiveness of qualitative point-of-care viral load tests (POC-VL) in sub-Saharan Africa. DESIGN Mathematical model based on longitudinal data from the Gugulethu and Khayelitsha(More)
This paper describes a targeted maximum likelihood estimator (TMLE) for the parameters of longitudinal static and dynamic marginal structural models. We consider a longitudinal data structure consisting of baseline covariates, time-dependent intervention nodes, intermediate time-dependent covariates, and a possibly time-dependent outcome. The intervention(More)
BACKGROUND The number of patients in need of second-line antiretroviral drugs is increasing in sub-Saharan Africa. We aimed to project the need of second-line antiretroviral therapy in adults in sub-Saharan Africa up to 2030. METHODS We developed a simulation model for HIV and applied it to each sub-Saharan African country. We used the WHO country(More)
BACKGROUND WHO's 2013 revisions to its Consolidated Guidelines on antiretroviral drugs recommend routine viral load monitoring, rather than clinical or immunological monitoring, as the preferred monitoring approach on the basis of clinical evidence. However, HIV programmes in resource-limited settings require guidance on the most cost-effective use of(More)
Methods—We searched PubMed and Embase databases for PMTCT studies in sub-Saharan Africa published between January 2002 and March 2012. Outcomes were the percentage of pregnant women (i) tested for HIV, (ii) initiating antiretroviral prophylaxis, (iii) having a CD4 cell count measured, and (iv) initiating antiretroviral combination therapy (cART) if(More)
OBJECTIVES HIV 'treatment as prevention' (TasP) describes early treatment of HIV-infected patients intended to reduce viral load and transmission. Crucial assumptions for estimating TasP's effectiveness are the underlying estimates of transmission risk. We aimed to determine transmission risk during primary infection, and describe the relation of HIV(More)
Mathematical models of disease progression predict disease outcomes and are useful epidemiological tools for planners and evaluators of health interventions. The 𝖱 package gems is a tool that simulates disease progression in patients and predicts the effect of different interventions on patient outcome. Disease progression is represented by a series of(More)
OBJECTIVE Treatment as prevention depends on retaining HIV-infected patients in care. We investigated the effect on HIV transmission of bringing patients lost to follow-up (LTFU) back into care. DESIGN Mathematical model. METHODS Stochastic mathematical model of cohorts of 1000 HIV-infected patients on antiretroviral therapy, based on the data from 2(More)
BACKGROUND The cost-effectiveness of routine viral load (VL) monitoring of HIV-infected patients on antiretroviral therapy (ART) depends on various factors that differ between settings and across time. Low-cost point-of-care (POC) tests for VL are in development and may make routine VL monitoring affordable in resource-limited settings. We developed a(More)