Natalia Nolde

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Recent computational advances allow investment managers to search for profitable investment strategies. In many instances, that search involves a pseudo-mathematical argument, which is spuriously validated through a simulation of its historical performance (also called backtest). We prove that high performance is easily achievable after backtesting a(More)
Multivariate risk analysis is concerned with extreme observations. If the underlying distribution has a unimodal density then both the decay rate of the tails and the asymptotic shape of the level sets of the density are of importance for the dependence structure of extreme observations. For heavy-tailed densities, the sample clouds converge in distribution(More)
The aim of the paper is to examine the behavior of insurance surplus over time for a portfolio of homogeneous life policies. We distinguish between stochastic and accounting surpluses and derive their first two moments. A recursive formula is proposed for calculating the distribution function of the accounting surplus. We then examine the probability that(More)
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