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Estimates of the severity of coronavirus disease 2019: a model-based analysis
A New Framework and Software to Estimate Time-Varying Reproduction Numbers During Epidemics
- A. Cori, N. Ferguson, C. Fraser, S. Cauchemez
- Environmental ScienceAmerican journal of epidemiology
- 15 September 2013
This tool produces novel, statistically robust analytical estimates of R that incorporates uncertainty in the distribution of the serial interval and should help epidemiologists quantify temporal changes in the transmission intensity of future epidemics by using surveillance data.
Strategies for containing an emerging influenza pandemic in Southeast Asia
A simulation model of influenza transmission in Southeast Asia is used and it is shown that elimination of a nascent pandemic may be feasible using a combination of geographically targeted prophylaxis and social distancing measures, if the basic reproduction number of the new virus is below 1.8.
Report 9: Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID19 mortality and healthcare demand
Neil M Ferguson, Daniel Laydon, Gemma Nedjati-Gilani, Natsuko Imai, Kylie Ainslie, Marc Baguelin, Sangeeta Bhatia, Adhiratha Boonyasiri, Zulma Cucunubá, Gina Cuomo-Dannenburg, Amy Dighe, Ilaria…
Strategies for mitigating an influenza pandemic
It is found that border restrictions and/or internal travel restrictions are unlikely to delay spread by more than 2–3 weeks unless more than 99% effective, and vaccine stockpiled in advance of a pandemic could significantly reduce attack rates even if of low efficacy.
Estimating the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in Europe
The results show that major non-pharmaceutical interventions and lockdown in particular have had a large effect on reducing transmission and continued intervention should be considered to keep transmission of SARS-CoV-2 under control.
Pandemic Potential of a Strain of Influenza A (H1N1): Early Findings
Transmissibility is substantially higher than that of seasonal flu, and comparable with lower estimates of R0 obtained from previous influenza pandemics, by analyzing the outbreak in Mexico, early data on international spread, and viral genetic diversity, which makes an early assessment of transmissibility and severity.
Transmission Dynamics of the Etiological Agent of SARS in Hong Kong: Impact of Public Health Interventions
Transmission rates fell during the SARS epidemic, primarily as a result of reductions in population contact rates and improved hospital infection control, but also because of more rapid hospital attendance by symptomatic individuals.
Time lines of infection and disease in human influenza: a review of volunteer challenge studies.
Prior expert opinion on the duration of viral shedding or the frequency of asymptomatic influenza infection is confirmed, prior knowledge on the dynamics of viral shed and symptoms is extended, and original results on the frequencyof respiratory symptoms or fever are provided.