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We derive joint probability density distributions for three key uncertain properties of the climate system, using an optimal fingerprinting approach to compare simulations of an intermediate complexity climate model with three distinct diagnostics of recent climate observations. On the basis of the marginal probability distributions, the 5 to 95% confidence(More)
To aid climate policy decisions, accurate quantitative descriptions of the uncertainty in climate outcomes under various possible policies are needed. Here, we apply an earth systems model to describe the uncertainty in climate projections under two different policy scenarios. This study illustrates an internally consistent uncertainty analysis of one(More)
The MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change is an organization for research, independent policy analysis, and public education in global environmental change. It seeks to provide leadership in understanding scientific, economic, and ecological aspects of this difficult issue, and combining them into policy assessments that serve the(More)
The MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change is an organization for research, independent policy analysis, and public education in global environmental change. It seeks to provide leadership in understanding scientific, economic, and ecological aspects of this difficult issue, and combining them into policy assessments that serve the(More)
The MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change is an organization for research, independent policy analysis, and public education in global environmental change. It seeks to provide leadership in understanding scientific, economic, and ecological aspects of this difficult issue, and combining them into policy assessments that serve the(More)
  • A Peter, Schultz, Jerry W Elwood, Edward A Parson, Virginia R Burkett, U S Geological Survey +59 others
  • 2007
This document does not express any regulatory policies of the United States or any of its agencies, or provide recommendations for regulatory action. Further information on the process for preparing Synthesis and Assessment products and the CCSP itself can be found at www.climatescience.gov. Eight members of the Climate Change Science Program Product(More)
Future emissions of greenhouse gases, their climatic effects, and the resulting environmental and economic consequences are subject to large uncertainties. The task facing the public and their policy-makers is to devise strategies of risk reduction, and they need a clear representation of these uncertainties to inform their choices. Absent this information,(More)
This paper presents the probabilistic collocation method as a computationally efficient method for performing uncertainty analysis on large complex models such as those used in global climate change research. The collocation method is explained, and then the results of its application to a box model of ocean thermohaline circulation are presented. A(More)
We assess the human health and economic impacts of projected 2000–2050 changes in ozone pollution using the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis-Health Effects (EPPA-HE) model, in combination with results from the GEOS-Chem global tropospheric chemistry model of climate and chemistry effects of projected future emissions. We use EPPA-HE to assess(More)
Clear and quantitative discussion of uncertainties is critical for public policy making on climate change. The recently completed report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessed the uncertainty in its findings and forecasts. The uncertainty assessment process of the IPCC should be improved in the future by using a consistent approach to(More)