Mika Kortelainen

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This paper studies forecasts errors at the micro level using two alternative survey data sets. The main focus is on inflation and real GDP growth forecasts in the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters. For comparison, inflation forecasts in the US Survey of Professional Forecasters are also examined. Our analysis indicates that forecast errors are(More)
The field of production frontier estimation is divided between the parametric Stochastic Frontier Analysis (SFA) and the deterministic, nonparametric Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA). This paper explores an amalgam of DEA and SFA that melds a nonparametric frontier with a stochastic composite error. Our model imposes the standard SFA assumptions for the(More)
protection, utilities) can be characterised by a two-stage production process. In the first stage, basic inputs (e.g., labour and capital) are used to generate service potential (e.g., opening hours, materials), which is then, in the second stage, transformed into observed outputs (e.g., school outcomes, library circulation, crimes solved). As final outputs(More)
The opinions expressed in this paper do not necessarily reflect the position of Summary Environmental cost-benefit analysis (ECBA) refers to social evaluation of investment projects and policies that involve significant environmental impacts. Valuation of the environmental impacts in monetary terms forms one of the critical steps in ECBA. We propose a new(More)
  • Juha Tervala, Vesa Kanniainen, Mika Kortelainen, Suomen Pankin, keskustelualoitteita
  • 2005
The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Bank of Finland. Financial support from the Yrjö Jahnsson Foundation is gratefully acknowledged. I should also like to express my gratitude to Vesa Kanniainen, Mika Kortelainen, Anne Mikkola, Tapio Palokangas, Jouko Vilmunen, two anonymous referees and seminar(More)
The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Bank of Finland. This project arose from discussions with Juha Tarkka and Jouko Vilmunen. I am very grateful to Juha for his enthusiasm for the project, valuable discussions, and substantial input, which significantly improved the paper. I would also like to thank(More)
IMF staff regularly produces papers proposing new IMF policies, exploring options for reform, or reviewing existing IMF policies and operations. The following document(s) have been released and are included in this package: The report prepared by IMF staff has benefited from comments and suggestions by Executive Directors following the informal session on(More)