Michela Catenacci

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Bayesian networks (BNs) have been increasingly applied to support management and decision-making processes under conditions of environmental variability and uncertainty, providing logical and holistic reasoning in complex systems since they succinctly and effectively translate causal assertions between variables into patterns of probabilistic dependence.(More)
This paper discusses methodological aspects of recent climate change damage studies. Assessing the total and/or marginal damage costs of environmental change is often difficult and it is certainly difficult in the case of climate change. A major obstacle is the uncertainty on the physical impacts of climate change, especially related to extreme events and(More)
Probabilistic estimates of the cost and performance of future nuclear energy systems under different scenarios of government research, development, and demonstration (RD&D) spending were obtained from 30 U.S. and 30 European nuclear technology experts. We used a novel elicitation approach which combined individual and group elicitation. With no change from(More)
This paper illustrates the main results of an expert elicitation survey on advanced (second and third generation) biofuel technologies. The survey focuses on eliciting probabilistic information on the future costs of advanced biofuels and on the potential role of RD&D (Research, Development and Demonstration) efforts in reducing these costs and in(More)
and Carlo Giupponi Ca’ Foscari University, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei and Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici SUMMARY Bayesian networks (BNs) have been increasingly applied to support management and decision-making processes under conditions of environmental variability and uncertainty, providing logical and holistic reasoning in complex(More)
The proposed methodology is built upon the sequential use of specific tools, which are based on the integrated application of conceptual modelling and expert judgment elicitation techniques, decision analysis and probabilistic modelling, within the broader framework of the NetSyMoD methodology (Giupponi et al. 2008; www.netsymod.eu/), previously developed,(More)