Michael Spagat

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BACKGROUND Suicide bombs in Iraq are a major public health problem. We aimed to describe documented casualties from suicide bombs in Iraq during 2003-10 in Iraqi civilians and coalition soldiers. METHODS In this descriptive study, we analysed and compared suicide bomb casualties in Iraq that were documented in two datasets covering March 20, 2003, to Dec(More)
Many collective human activities, including violence, have been shown to exhibit universal patterns. The size distributions of casualties both in whole wars from 1816 to 1980 and terrorist attacks have separately been shown to follow approximate power-law distributions. However, the possibility of universal patterns ranging across wars in the size(More)
Civil war and genocide in the 1990-2000 period in Rwanda-a small, landlocked, densely populated country in Central Africa-have had differential economic impacts on the country's provinces. The reasons for this are the death toll of the genocide, the location of battles, the waves of migration and the local resurgence of war. As a result, the labour/land and(More)
Cluster sampling has recently been used to estimate the mortality in various conflicts around the world. The Burnham et al. (2006) study on Iraq employs a new variant of this cluster sampling methodology. The stated methodology of Burnham et al. (2006) is to (1) select a random main street, (2) choose a random cross street to this main street, and (3)(More)
In a much-cited recent article, Obermeyer, Murray, and Gakidou (2008a) examine estimates of wartime fatalities from injuries for thirteen countries. Their analysis poses a major challenge to the battle-death estimating methodology widely used by conflict researchers, engages with the controversy over whether war deaths have been increasing or decreasing in(More)
Policy Forum D ocumentation, analysis, and prevention of the harmful effects of armed conflict on populations are established public health priorities [1–5]. Although public health research on war is increasingly framed in human rights terms [6–13], general public health methods are typically applied without direct links to laws of war. Laws of war are(More)
BACKGROUND Armed violence is a major public health and humanitarian problem in Iraq. In this descriptive statistical analysis we aimed to describe for the first time Iraqi civilian deaths caused by perpetrators of armed violence during the first 5 years of the Iraq war: over time; by weapon used; by region (governorate); and by victim demographics. (More)
Many high-profile societal problems involve an individual or group repeatedly attacking another - from child-parent disputes, sexual violence against women, civil unrest, violent conflicts and acts of terror, to current cyber-attacks on national infrastructure and ultrafast cyber-trades attacking stockholders. There is an urgent need to quantify the likely(More)
We model growth in dictatorships facing each period an endogenous probability of " political catastrophe " that would extinguish the regime's wealth extraction ability. Domestic capital exhibits a bifurcation point determining economic growth or shrinkage. With low initial domestic capital the dictator plunders the country's resources and the economy(More)