Michael Scott Balch

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Dwr Cymru Welsh Water supplies over three million people with drinking water throughout most of Wales (UK). Ortho-phosphate has increasingly been dosed at around 1 mg/L (P) to further reduce the corrosivity of supplies to the lead pipes which connect approximately 30% of houses to water mains in the company's area, additional to long-establish pH adjustment(More)
In modeling and simulation (M&S), we seek to predict the state of a system using a computer-based simulation of a differential equation-based model. In general, the inputs to the model may contain uncertainty due to inherent randomness (aleatory uncertainty), a lack of knowledge (epistemic uncertainty), or a combination of the two. In many practical cases,(More)
This paper introduces a new mathematical object: the confidence structure. A confidence structure represents inferential uncertainty in an unknown parameter by defining a belief function whose output is commensurate with Neyman-Pearson confidence. Confidence structures on a group of input variables can be propagated through a function to obtain a valid(More)
This paper examines whether the costly random verification scheme affects the optimal debt contract for small business. It finds, contrary to Townsend (1979) and Williamson (1986, 1987), that the standard debt contract is the optimal debt contract with the costly random verification scheme. Credit rationing, characterized as a loan granted in an amount less(More)
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