Michael F. Evans

Learn More
Inference proceeds from ingredients chosen by the analyst and data. To validate any inferences drawn it is essential that the inputs chosen be deemed appropriate for the data. In the Bayesian context these inputs consist of both the sampling model and the prior. There are thus two possibilities for failure: the data may not have arisen from the sampling(More)
OBJECTIVE We sought to determine the accuracy of administrative data for identifying mental health service provision in primary care. STUDY DESIGN This was a chart abstraction study measuring agreement between billing data and clinical data on the binary variable "mental health visit." Data were collected from the charts and billing records of 5 academic(More)
Reconstructing the spatial pattern of a climate process through time from incomplete instrumental and climate proxy time series is a problem with clear societal relevance that poses both scientific and statistical challenges. The scope of these challenges, along with the interdisciplinary nature of the reconstruction problem, point to the need for greater(More)
BACKGROUND Guidelines for the management of acute cystitis support empirical antibiotic treatment; however, up to half of symptomatic women have negative urine cultures. OBJECTIVE To determine whether empirical treatment leads to unnecessary antibiotic prescriptions in women with symptoms of acute cystitis. METHODS A cohort of 231 women (defined as(More)
A fundamental concern of a theory of statistical inference is how one should measure statistical evidence. Certainly the words "statistical evidence," or perhaps just "evidence," are much used in statistical contexts. It is fair to say, however, that the precise characterization of this concept is somewhat elusive. Our goal here is to provide a definition(More)
A double-blind, randomized controlled trial conducted at 21 centers in 14 countries compared the effectiveness and side effects of the traditional Yuzpe method of emergency contraception (200 mcg of ethinyl estradiol and 1 mg of levonorgestrel divided into 2 equal doses) and levonorgestrel alone (2 doses of 0.75 mg each). 1955 women (979 in the Yuzpe group(More)