When Backing Down Is the Right Decision: Partisanship, New Information, and Audience Costs
How do domestic political conditions shape when leaders get punished for backing down in international crises? We explore how three factors—the president’s partisanship, the reaction of other elites,…
Why Leaders Fight
How Prior Military Experience Influences the Future Militarized Behavior of Leaders
Abstract Policy-makers and the electorate assume political executives' life experiences affect their policy choices once in office. Recent international relations work on leaders focuses almost…
Identifying and Cultivating Superforecasters as a Method of Improving Probabilistic Predictions
The findings suggest that superforecasters are partly discovered and partly created—and that the high-performance incentives of tournaments highlight aspects of human judgment that would not come to light in laboratory paradigms focused on typical performance.
Nonstate Actors and the Diffusion of Innovations: The Case of Suicide Terrorism
- Michael C. Horowitz
- PsychologyInternational Organization
- 1 January 2010
Abstract Studies of terrorism in general and suicide terrorism in particular tend to view terrorist groups independently. However, what if the propensity for a terrorist group to adopt suicide…
Leader Age, Regime Type, and Violent International Relations
In this article, the authors investigate the relationship between states'political leaders'ages, their regime type, and the likelihood of militarized dispute initiation and escalation. They examine…
The psychology of intelligence analysis: drivers of prediction accuracy in world politics.
- B. Mellers, Eric Stone, P. Tetlock
- PsychologyJournal of experimental psychology. Applied
- 12 January 2015
A profile of the best forecasters is developed; they were better at inductive reasoning, pattern detection, cognitive flexibility, and open-mindedness; they had greater understanding of geopolitics, training in probabilistic reasoning, and opportunities to succeed in cognitively enriched team environments.
Increasing advocacy awareness within professional psychology training programs: The 2005 National Council of Schools and Programs of Professional Psychology Self-Study.
Sizing Up the Adversary
- Michael C. Horowitz, P. Potter, Todd S. Sechser, A. Stam
- Political ScienceJournal of Conflict Resolution
- 21 October 2018
Leaders negotiate, not states. Yet the extensive body of work on coercive diplomacy in international relations pays little attention to variation among leaders. In contrast, we argue that…
Public opinion and the politics of the killer robots debate
- Michael C. Horowitz
- Political Science
- 1 January 2016
The possibility that today’s drones could become tomorrow’s killer robots has attracted the attention of people around the world. Scientists and business leaders, from Stephen Hawking to Elon Musk,…