Melvin J. Hinich

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Political scientists have conducted only limited systematic research on the consequences of war for civilian populations. Here we argue that the civilian suffering caused by civil war extends well beyond the period of active warfare. We examine these longer-term effects in a cross-national (1999) analysis of World Health Organization new fine-grained data(More)
Interest has been growing in testing for nonlinearity or chaos in economic data, but much controversy has arisen about the available results. This paper explores the reasons for these empirical difficulties. We designed and ran a single-blind controlled competition among five highly regarded tests for nonlinearity or chaos with ten simulated data series.(More)
A periodic signal can be perfectly predicted far into the future since it perfectly repeats every period. There is always some variation in the waveform over time for signals which are labeled as periodic but which are not truly deterministic. A formal definition is presented in this paper for such a varying periodic signal and the properties of such a(More)
All signals that appear to be periodic have some sort of variability from period to period regardless of how stable they appear to be in a data plot. A true sinusoidal time series is a deterministic function of time that never changes and thus has zero bandwidth around the sinusoid’s frequency. A zero bandwidth is impossible in nature since all signals have(More)