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Predictions of future climate are of central importance in determining actions to adapt to the impacts of climate change and in formulating targets to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases. In the absence of analogues of the future, physically based numerical climate models must be used to make predictions. New approaches are under development to deal with a(More)
Simulations with the Hadley Centre general circulation model (HadCM3), including carbon cycle model and forced by a 'business-as-usual' emissions scenario, predict a rapid loss of Amazonian rainforest from the middle of this century onwards. The robustness of this projection to both uncertainty in physical climate drivers and the formulation of the land(More)
The project Historically, complex climate models (that is, combined atmosphere– ocean global circulation models) have run only on supercomputers. Recently, however, the increase in speed and memory of the typical home or business PC has opened up the possibility of undertaking serious modeling projects on such equipment. Projects such as SETI@home,2(More)
Introduction The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a naturally occurring fluctuation that originates in the tropical Pacific region with severe weather and societal impacts worldwide (McPhaden et al. 2006). Despite considerable progress in our understanding of the impact of climate change on many of the processes that contribute to ENSO variability, it(More)
Climateprediction.net aims to harness the spare CPU cycles of a million individual users’ PCs to run a massive ensemble of climate simulations using an up-to-date, full resolution, three dimensional atmosphere-ocean climate model. The project has many similarities with other public-resource high-throughput activities but is distinctive in a number of ways(More)
The projection of robust regional climate changes over the next 50 years presents a considerable challenge for the current generation of climate models. Water cycle changes are particularly difficult to model in this area because major uncertainties exist in the representation of processes such as large-scale and convective rainfall and their feedback with(More)
Future changes in meridional sea surface temperature (SST) gradients in the tropical Atlantic could influence Amazon dry-season precipitation by shifting the patterns of moisture convergence and vertical motion. Unlike for the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, there are no standard indices for quantifying this gradient. Here we describe a method for identifying(More)