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The range of possibilities for future climate evolution needs to be taken into account when planning climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies. This requires ensembles of multi-decadal simulations to assess both chaotic climate variability and model response uncertainty. Statistical estimates of model response uncertainty, based on observations of(More)
Executive summary The 2015 Lancet Commission on Health and Climate Change has been formed to map out the impacts of climate change, and the necessary policy responses, in order to ensure the highest attainable standards of health for populations worldwide. This Commission is multi­ disciplinary and international in nature, with strong collabor ation between(More)
A nthropogenic climate change is now well established as a global issue of scientic and political importance. One of the principal impacts of the gradual change associated with anthropogenic climate warming comes from a shi in, or an exaggeration of, pre-existing natural variability. For example, if the average distribution of precipitation shis to higher(More)
Climateprediction.net aims to harness the spare CPU cycles of a million individual users' PCs to run a massive ensemble of climate simulations using an up-to-date, full resolution, three dimensional atmosphere-ocean climate model. The project has many similarities with other public-resource high-throughput activities but is distinctive in a number of ways(More)
project is developing the software necessary to carry out such a project in the public domain. 1 In this article, we describe the development of the demonstration release software, along with the computational challenges such as data mining, visualization, and distributed database management that the project will address in the future. The project(More)
Simulations with the Hadley Centre general circulation model (HadCM3), including carbon cycle model and forced by a 'business-as-usual' emissions scenario, predict a rapid loss of Amazonian rainforest from the middle of this century onwards. The robustness of this projection to both uncertainty in physical climate drivers and the formulation of the land(More)
OBJECTIVE Our prespecified dose-response analyses of A Very Early Rehabilitation Trial (AVERT) aim to provide practical guidance for clinicians on the timing, frequency, and amount of mobilization following acute stroke. METHODS Eligible patients were aged ≥18 years, had confirmed first (or recurrent) stroke, and were admitted to a stroke unit within 24(More)
Future changes in meridional sea surface temperature (SST) gradients in the tropical Atlantic could influence Amazon dry-season precipitation by shifting the patterns of moisture convergence and vertical motion. Unlike for the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, there are no standard indices for quantifying this gradient. Here we describe a method for identifying(More)