Martin Isaac Meltzer

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OBJECTIVE To quantify the public health and economic burden of endemic canine rabies in Africa and Asia. METHODS Data from these regions were applied to a set of linked epidemiological and economic models. The human population at risk from endemic canine rabies was predicted using data on dog density, and human rabies deaths were estimated using a series(More)
We estimated the possible effects of the next influenza pandemic in the United States and analyzed the economic impact of vaccine-based interventions. Using death rates, hospitalization data, and outpatient visits, we estimated 89,000 to 207,000 deaths; 314,000 to 734,000 hospitalizations; 18 to 42 million outpatient visits; and 20 to 47 million additional(More)
The first cases of the current West African epidemic of Ebola virus disease (hereafter referred to as Ebola) were reported on March 22, 2014, with a report of 49 cases in Guinea. By August 31, 2014, a total of 3,685 probable, confirmed, and suspected cases in West Africa had been reported. To aid in planning for additional disease-control efforts, CDC(More)
To calculate the burden of 2009 pandemic influenza A (pH1N1) in the United States, we extrapolated from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Emerging Infections Program laboratory-confirmed hospitalizations across the entire United States, and then corrected for underreporting. From 12 April 2009 to 10 April 2010, we estimate that approximately(More)
Through July 2009, a total of 43,677 laboratory-confirmed cases of influenza A pandemic (H1N1) 2009 were reported in the United States, which is likely a substantial underestimate of the true number. Correcting for under-ascertainment using a multiplier model, we estimate that 1.8 million-5.7 million cases occurred, including 9,000-21,000 hospitalizations.
Since the 1960s, expenditure on health care in developed countries has risen faster than the general rate of inflation, thus making economic assessment of interventions an integral part of decision making in health services. This paper is the first in a series whose goal is to provide some basic principles of health economics that will allow practising(More)
CONTEXT Although the cost-effectiveness and cost-benefit of influenza vaccination are well established for persons aged 65 years or older, the benefits for healthy adults younger than 65 years are less clear. OBJECTIVE To evaluate the effectiveness and cost-benefit of influenza vaccine in preventing influenza-like illness (ILI) and reducing societal costs(More)
We constructed a mathematical model to describe the spread of smallpox after a deliberate release of the virus. Assuming 100 persons initially infected and 3 persons infected per infectious person, quarantine alone could stop disease transmission but would require a minimum daily removal rate of 50% of those with overt symptoms. Vaccination would stop the(More)
Understanding and quantifying the impact of a bioterrorist attack are essential in developing public health preparedness for such an attack. We constructed a model that compares the impact of three classic agents of biologic warfare (Bacillus anthracis, Brucella melitensis, and Francisella tularensis) when released as aerosols in the suburb of a major city.(More)
To ascertain the economic feasibility of a pediatric tetravalent dengue vaccine, we developed and calibrated a cost-effectiveness model of vaccinating children at 15 months in Southeast (SE) Asia using a societal perspective. We assumed that full immunization would require two doses at prices of US$ 0.50 and US$ 10 per dose in the public and private(More)