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- James H. STOCKand, Mark W. WATSON
- 2008

This article considers forecasting a single time series when there are many predictors (N) and time series observations (T). When the data follow an approximate factor model, the predictors can be summarized by a small number of indexes, which we estimate using principal components. Feasible forecasts are shown to be asymptotically efficient in the sense… (More)

This article studies forecasting a macroeconomic time series variable using a large number of predictors. The predictors are summarized using a small number of indexes constructed by principal component analysis. An approximate dynamic factor model serves as the statistical framework for the estimation of the indexes and construction of the forecasts. The… (More)

- Robert G King, Charles I Plosser, +12 authors Gustavo Gonzaga
- 1991

Are business cycles mainly the result of permanent shocks to productivity? This paper uses a long-run restriction implied by a large class of real-business-cycle models -identifying permanent productivity shocks as shocks to the common stochastic trend in output, consumption, and investment -to provide new evidence on this question. Econometric tests… (More)

This paper investigates forecasts of US in#ation at the 12-month horizon. The starting point is the conventional unemployment rate Phillips curve, which is examined in a simulated out-of-sample forecasting framework. In#ation forecasts produced by the Phillips curve generally have been more accurate than forecasts based on other macroeconomic variables,… (More)

- David S. Lee, Justin McCrary, +12 authors Diane Whitmore
- 2005

This paper empirically assesses the wage effects of the Job Corps program, one of the largest federally-funded job training programs in the United States. Even with the aid of a randomized experiment, the impact of a training program on wages is difficult to study because of sample selection, a pervasive problem in applied micro-econometric research. Wage… (More)

- Torben G. Andersen, Tim Bollerslev, +13 authors Ingrid Werner
- 2001

Using a new dataset consisting of six years of real-time exchange rate quotations, macroeconomic expectations, and macroeconomic realizations (announcements), we characterize the conditional means of U.S. dollar spot exchange rates versus German Mark, British Pound, Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc, and the Euro. In particular, we find that announcement surprises… (More)

- MARK W. WATSON
- 1988

Cointegrated multiple time series share at least one common trend. Two tests are developed for the number of common stochastic trends (i.e., for the order of cointegration) ina multiple time series with and without drift. Both tests involve the roots of the ordinary least squares coefficient matrix obtained by regressing the series onto its first lag.… (More)

We examine whether the U.S. rate of price inflation has become harder to forecast and, to the extent that it has, what changes in the inflation process have made it so. The main finding is that the univariate inflation process is well described by an unobserved component trend-cycle model with stochastic volatility or, equivalently, an integrated moving… (More)

This paper discusses detrending economic time series, when the trend is modelled as a stochastic process. It considers unobserved components models in which the observed series is decomposed into a trend (a random walk with drift) and a residual stationary component. Optimal detrending methods are discussed, as well as problems associated with using these… (More)

- Mark W. Watson
- 1993

This paper suggests a new procedure for evaluating the fit of a dynamic structural economic model. The procedure begins by augmenting the variables in the model with just enough stochastic error so that the model can exactly match the second moments of the actual data. Measures of fit for the model can then be constructed on the basis of the size of this… (More)