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Natural populations consist of phenotypically diverse individuals that exhibit variation in their demographic parameters and intra- and inter-specific interactions. Recent experimental work indicates that such variation can have significant ecological effects. However, ecological models typically disregard this variation and focus instead on trait means and(More)
Two major approaches address the need to predict species distributions in response to environmental changes. Correlative models estimate parameters phenomenologically by relating current distributions to environmental conditions. By contrast, mechanistic models incorporate explicit relationships between environmental conditions and organismal performance,(More)
Predicting the impacts of climate change on species is one of the biggest challenges that ecologists face. Predictions routinely focus on the direct effects of climate change on individual species, yet interactions between species can strongly influence how climate change affects organisms at every scale by altering their individual fitness, geographic(More)
Growth is a critical ecological trait because it can determine population demography, evolution, and community interactions. Predation risk frequently induces decreased foraging and slow growth in prey. However, such strategies may not always be favored when prey can outgrow a predator's hunting ability. At the same time, a growing gape-limited predator(More)
To predict the spread of invasive species, we need to understand the mechanisms that underlie their range expansion. Assuming random diffusion through homogeneous environments, invasions are expected to progress at a constant rate. However, environmental heterogeneity is expected to alter diffusion rates, especially by slowing invasions as populations(More)
  • Mark C Urban
  • Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences…
  • 2007
Longstanding theory in behavioral ecology predicts that prey should evolve decreased foraging rates under high predation threat. However, an alternative perspective suggests that growth into a size refuge from gape-limited predation and the future benefits of large size can outweigh the initial survival costs of intense foraging. Here, I evaluate the(More)
Invasive species threaten biological diversity throughout the world. Understanding the dynamics of their spread is critical to mitigating this threat. In Australia, efforts are underway to control the invasive cane toad (Chaunus [Bufo] marinus). Range models based on their native bioclimatic envelope suggest that the cane toad is nearing the end of its(More)
Most climate change predictions omit species interactions and interspecific variation in dispersal. Here, we develop a model of multiple competing species along a warming climatic gradient that includes temperature-dependent competition, differences in niche breadth and interspecific differences in dispersal ability. Competition and dispersal differences(More)