Marjolijn Haasnoot

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There is increasing interest in long-term plans that can adapt to changing situations under conditions of deep uncertainty. We argue that a sustainable plan should not only achieve economic, environmental, and social objectives, but should be robust and able to be adapted over time to (unforeseen) future conditions. Large numbers of papers dealing with(More)
Exploring adaptation pathways into an uncertain future can support decisionmaking in achieving sustainable water management in a changing environment. Our objective is to develop and test a method to identify such pathways by including dynamics from natural variability and the interaction between the water system and society. Present planning studies on(More)
A highly uncertain future due to changes in climate, technology and socio-economics has led to the realisation that identification of “best-guess” future conditions might no longer be appropriate. Instead, multiple plausible futures need to be considered, which requires (i) uncertainties to be described with the aid of scenarios that represent coherent(More)
1 Securing the supply and equitable allocation of fresh water to support human well-being while sustaining healthy, functioning ecosystems is one of the grand environmental challenges of the twenty-first century, particularly in light of accelerating stressors from climate change, population growth and economic development. Rehabilitation of ageing(More)
Exploring adaptation pathways is an emerging approach for supporting decision making under uncertain changing conditions. An adaptation pathway is a sequence of policy actions to reach specified objectives. To develop adaptation pathways, interactions between environment and policy response need to be analysed over time for an ensemble of plausible futures.(More)
The future of human life in the world’s river deltas depends on the success of water management. To deal with uncertainties about the future, policymakers in the Netherlands have used scenarios to develop water management strategies for the coastal zone of the Rhine–Meuse delta. In this paper we reflect on six decades of scenario use in the Netherlands, and(More)
To implement or continue water management strategies social support is needed. Social support highly depends on people's perspectives on water. However, these perspectives are not static and may change over time leading to changes in social support for strategies. Therefore, sustainable water management strategies should be robust. Robust strategies are(More)
A variety of model-based approaches for supporting decision-making under deep uncertainty have been suggested, but they are rarely compared and contrasted. In this paper, we compare Robust DecisionMaking with Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways. We apply both to a hypothetical case inspired by a river reach in the Rhine Delta of the Netherlands, and compare(More)
Recent scenario studies on water management focus on one or two projection years and the effects on the water system and functions. The future is however more complex and dynamic. Therefore, we analyse transient scenarios in order to evaluate the performance of water management strategies. Current available simulation tools are not suitable for this(More)
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